Brent oil prices reach an inflexion point
Brent crude is testing key support near its 20-day moving average. A break below $95 a barrel could weaken the uptrend, while a hold may reopen the path above $110.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Brent crude has fallen back to its 20-day moving average and entered a critical support region needed to maintain the bullish trend established a few weeks ago. Oil prices now risk dropping back into the mid-$80s if Brent loses support at $100 a barrel.
Brent reached overbought conditions on 10 September, when oil rose to around $110 a barrel, broke above its upper Bollinger Band and saw its relative strength index rise above 70. Prices then consolidated for a few days before dropping sharply. Brent is now in a more neutral area, with the RSI in the mid-50s and the price sitting in the middle of the Bollinger Bands at the 20-day moving average.
If oil falls below the 20-day moving average, it would be at risk of breaking the uptrend established in mid-July. The uptrend also coincides with support at $95 a barrel, first established in March. A break of support at $95 a barrel and a loss of the trend line would be a bearish signal, likely pushing oil prices back towards $85 a barrel.
If support at the 20-day moving average holds, Brent could continue to trend higher and potentially move beyond the $110 a barrel region recently tested.
Brent crude daily, July 2026 – present
Source: TradingView, 23 September 2026
