Three Cancer Research Stocks to Watch After Moderna’s Breakthrough

The share price of Moderna [MRNA] more than doubled on news that intismeran, its personalised mRNA cancer vaccine, had met the primary endpoints of a Phase 3 trial in patients with high-risk melanoma.

The treatment is designed around each patient’s tumour. After surgery, the tumour is genetically sequenced to identify mutations that could trigger an immune response. Those targets are then encoded into an individualised mRNA vaccine, which is administered alongside Keytruda, an established immunotherapy manufactured by Merck [MRK]; MRK stock also spiked on the news. 

The result is significant because it is reportedly the first randomised Phase 3 success for a personalised neoantigen cancer vaccine. Earlier Phase 2 data had shown a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death and a 59% reduction in the risk of distant metastasis or death when the vaccine was combined with Keytruda, compared to the use of Keytruda alone.

The implications extend beyond melanoma, with similar approaches being investigated across cancers including lung, kidney and bladder cancer.

While Merck and Moderna delivered outsized gains, several sequencing companies also caught the tailwind, as investors recognised the potential implications of personalised cancer therapies. 

Because intismeran is tailored to each patient’s tumour, genomic sequencing is a critical part of identifying the mutations that the vaccine is designed to target. The rally therefore extended to sequencing specialists including Illumina [ILMN] and Pacific Biosciences [PACB]. Between the announcement on Wednesday 19 August and the following Friday, ILMN shares rose 16%, from $188.29 to $219.40, while PACB gained 18%, climbing from $1.14 to $1.35.

The read-across was not limited to sequencing companies. Other developers of mRNA-based cancer therapies also rallied, with BioNTech [BNTX] gaining around 22% as investors reassessed the potential of personalised cancer vaccines.

This stock analysis examines three companies offering different ways to gain exposure to the trend: Moderna itself, Illumina and BioNTech. 

Moderna: The mRNA platform play 

Despite the renewed optimism around its mRNA platform, Moderna remains a challenging investment case. 

Q2 revenue rose just 2% year-on-year to $145m, while the company reported a $782m net loss. However, cost-cutting is beginning to have an impact: R&D spending fell 7% to $651m, while selling, general and administrative expenses declined 6% to $216m. Moderna also reiterated its target of delivering up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.

In short, the company is trying to bridge the gap between declining Covid-related revenues and a broader pipeline of products. Moderna ended June with $6.9bn in cash and investments, although that balance is expected to fall to between $4.7bn and $5.2bn by year-end as it continues to fund its pipeline. Management has forecast 2026 R&D spending of around $2.9bn, highlighting the substantial investment required before its newer programmes can generate meaningful revenue.

Beyond oncology, Moderna has several potential catalysts. Its next-generation flu vaccine, mFlusiva, is progressing through the regulatory process, while the company is also developing vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus and other infectious diseases alongside programmes targeting rare diseases. Its pipeline now spans multiple therapeutic areas, offering a potential route to diversify beyond Covid-19 vaccines.

The biggest challenge, perhaps, is valuation. Moderna’s shares have surged dramatically, meaning investors are now pricing in considerably greater success from its pipeline. The cancer breakthrough strengthens that case, but approval, commercial uptake and execution remain key risks.

Illumina: The genomic sequencing play

Illumina is arguably the clearest ‘picks and shovels’ beneficiary of the personalised cancer-treatment trend. Its sequencing technology provides the genomic data needed to identify tumour mutations and design therapies such as Moderna and Merck’s intismeran. 

Lately, the company has been working on its fundamentals. Illumina reported Q2 revenue of $1.16bn, up 9.5% y/y, while non-GAAP EPS increased to $1.31 from $1.19. Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $4.60bn-4.64bn and lifted its EPS outlook to $5.30-5.40.

A key driver is adoption of its NovaSeq X platform. Demand is described as strong as Illumina expands its sequencing and multiomics capabilities. Clinical applications are particularly important: the company says sequencing-intensive applications are gaining momentum, while clinical volumes on NovaSeq X continue to grow.

The investment case for ILMN stock therefore extends beyond personalised cancer vaccines. Broader adoption of whole-genome sequencing, precision medicine and multiomics could increase the amount of sequencing performed per patient, while Illumina’s installed base gives it a strong position in the market. The main risks are competition, pricing pressure and exposure to research funding, but the recent results suggest the business is gaining momentum as it transitions towards higher-value clinical applications.

BioNTech: The diversified oncology play

BioNTech has built a diversified oncology pipeline spanning mRNA cancer vaccines, bispecific immunotherapies and antibody-drug conjugates, with 14 ongoing pivotal trials as of its latest results. It also has more than 10 novel combinations in development across major tumour types.

The pipeline is becoming increasingly late-stage. BioNTech has initiated six pivotal trials in 2026, including five for pumitamig, its PD-L1/VEGF-A bispecific immunotherapy, and one for its B7-H3-targeting antibody-drug conjugate elfetabart drozuntecan. Pumitamig has shown encouraging efficacy in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer, while BioNTech expects three late-stage oncology readouts during 2026, including an mRNA cancer immunotherapy programme.

Financially, however, BioNTech is still in investment mode. Q2 revenue fell to €105.6m from €260.8m a year earlier, primarily because of weaker Covid-19 vaccine demand, while the net loss widened to €820.8m. The company subsequently cut its 2026 revenue guidance to €1.6bn-€1.9bn.

The counterweight is its substantial balance sheet. BioNTech held €16.6bn in cash, cash equivalents and securities at the end of June, providing significant funding for its oncology ambitions. The Moderna news therefore offers an attractive proof point for the potential of mRNA cancer vaccines, but BioNTech’s investment case rests on a much broader oncology pipeline and multiple potential catalysts.

Conclusion: The investment case for MRNA, ILMN and BNTX

This is how the three stocks currently line up in terms of fundamentals. 

Source: Yahoo Finance

The Moderna breakthrough has highlighted the growing potential of personalised cancer treatment, but the three offer very different ways to access the theme. 

Moderna has the greatest direct exposure to the opportunity through its mRNA platform, although its valuation now reflects substantially higher expectations and its underlying business remains under pressure from declining Covid-19 vaccine revenues. 

Illumina offers a lower-risk ‘picks and shovels’ route, providing the sequencing technology needed to identify the mutations underpinning personalised therapies while benefiting from broader adoption of precision medicine. 

BioNTech sits between the two, combining exposure to mRNA cancer vaccines with a broader oncology pipeline spanning bispecifics and antibody-drug conjugates, backed by a substantial cash position.

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