QS Stock: Could QuantumScape Be the Next Nvidia?

QuantumScape [QS] is a US-based company that develops solid-state rechargeable lithium metal batteries for electric vehicles (EVs).

QS stock surged more than 75% over three days in late June, reaching an 11-month high. The rally followed the company’s announcement of a manufacturing breakthrough and speculation that its solid-state battery — the holy grail of EV battery tech — could soon become commercially viable. 

Cobra Breakthrough 

The driver of QS stock’s recent rally is Cobra, a new production process for the company’s solid-state ceramic separators, a component has long been a bottleneck in QuantumScape’s path to commercialization. 

According to the company, Cobra offers a 25-fold improvement in manufacturing speed compared to its predecessor, Raptor, marking a potentially critical step toward industrial-scale production.

Shares jumped more than 30% on June 26 alone. As of July 2, the stock had gained 47.4% in the year to date, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and the broader clean energy segment. 

The spike even prompted some particularly ebullient observers to make comparisons with Nvidia [NVDA], citing the potential for a similar exponential return trajectory if QuantumScape’s technology succeeds.

Powering the EV Revolution

QuantumScape operates in a highly competitive sector, with several firms racing to bring solid-state batteries to market. 

Among its closest US-listed peers is Solid Power [SLDP], which has taken a more incremental approach. Unlike QuantumScape, Solid Power has begun generating modest revenue — $6m in the most recent quarter — and is supplying prototypes to partners including BMW [BMWKY] and Ford [F]. Its sulfide-based architecture differs from QuantumScape’s lithium-metal approach, but both companies share the challenge of proving manufacturability at scale.

Solid Power’s stock performance reflects more tempered expectations. SLDP stock has gained approximately 30% year-to-date, well below the pace of QuantumScape’s rise. 

At the other end of the spectrum is LG Energy Solution [373220:KS], the South Korean battery giant spun off from LG Chem [051910:KS] in 2020. 

While it continues to focus on conventional lithium-ion chemistries rather than solid-state, LG Energy Solution has built a reputation for mass production excellence, with partnerships with global automakers including General Motors [GM], Honda [HMC] and Hyundai [HYMTF]. Its experience underscores the operational challenges newcomers like QuantumScape will face when attempting to scale from lab to factory floor.

The comparison is instructive. While LG Energy Solution may lack the disruptive appeal of a solid-state player, it offers the kind of production reliability and profitability that development-stage companies have yet to prove. QuantumScape, by contrast, is betting on a transformative leap in battery technology — one that could redefine EV performance if successful, but which remains several engineering milestones away from real-world deployment.

Source: Yahoo Finance

QS Stock: The Investment Case

In many ways, QuantumScape represents a classic high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

The Bull Case for QuantumScape

QuantumScape ended the first quarter of 2025 with $860m in liquidity, sufficient to fund operations into 2028. The company has focused much of its spending on refining its 24-layer prototype cell and preparing its QS-0 pilot production line. If Cobra delivers the production gains the company claims, those efforts could begin to yield tangible results in 2026 or 2027.

The Cobra announcement is encouraging, suggesting that the company is making real progress in tackling the core challenge of scalable manufacturing. Its partnership with Volkswagen’s [VWAGY] PowerCo adds a layer of credibility, and its cash position provides it with the runway to continue development.

The Bear Case for QuantumScape

There are a number of reasons why investors may choose to exercise caution. For instance, on the same day as the Cobra announcement, QuantumScape’s Chief Development Officer Mohit Singh sold nearly $4m in stock. 

Insider selling is not uncommon, particularly in volatile growth companies, but the timing raised eyebrows. Moreover, the company remains pre-revenue, with no firm date for commercial shipments. 

Adding to this, competition in the EV battery space is intensifying. 

Toyota [TM] has stated its intention to begin mass-producing solid-state batteries by 2027, while Chinese firms such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co [300750:SZ] and BYD [BYDDF] are rapidly innovating in lithium-iron phosphate and hybrid chemistries. 

QuantumScape’s technological lead may prove transient if rivals with deeper manufacturing expertise close the gap.

Indeed, analyst sentiment remains mixed. Only one of seven analysts tracked by MarketWatch rates the stock a ‘buy’, and the average price target sits well below the current share price. Baird analysts cautioned that, despite the Cobra announcement, QuantumScape remains a pre-revenue company with limited visibility on its commercialization timeline and no exclusive arrangements with auto manufacturers beyond its existing link to Volkswagen.

Conclusion

For investors, the question is one of conviction. QuantumScape may well deliver a next-generation battery that reshapes the EV industry, but the timeline and execution risks are considerable. Those with long time horizons and a tolerance for volatility may find its potential compelling. Others may prefer to wait for clearer signs of commercial validation before buying in.