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Is BioNTech stock a bargain heading into 2022?

BioNTech’s [BNTX] stock has had a volatile year. The biotech company and its partner Pfizer’s [PFE] mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine was the first to be granted approval by the FDA. And as vaccines continue to be rolled out in both the US and globally, its product is still in great demand - especially with many health authorities now rolling out booster shots.

For BioNTech stock this meant a surge in both revenue and share price, especially in the first half of the year. However, in the second half of 2021 the stock has fallen, and now its partner Pfizer has developed a pill to protect against COVID-19 which could dent sales of the vaccine.

Considering BioNTech’s stock declines over the past few weeks and months, we look at whether it's attractively priced heading into 2022.

 

 

What’s happening with BioNTech’s share price?

The first week of November saw BioNTech’s stock fall over 22% after Pfizer announced the development of a new COVID pill. Having opened at $282 on Monday 1 November the stock closed Friday 5 November at just over $216.

-22%

BioNTech share price dive during first week of November

 

The second week of November then saw the stock claw back some of those losses, ending Friday 11 November at $238.14, up 9.9% on the week.

The Motley Fool’s Keith Speights puts the gains down to the previous week’s selloff being overdone. Speights suggests that the good news around promising trial data for Pfizer’s Covid pill could affect the demand for vaccination, although this depends on it being authorised and governments then moving away from purchasing vaccines.

For now, at least, it looks like Pfizer’s pill is unlikely to steal a significant market share from BioNTech’s COVID vaccine, especially as the need for booster shots is likely to increase.

“It's important to remember that (at least for now) governments are buying COVID vaccines. They're not likely to reduce their focus on vaccinations even with oral COVID therapies on the market. Pfizer's pill will probably have minimal impact on supply deals for Comirnaty [the marketing name for the BioNTech and Pfizer vaccine] in 2022 and 2023,” writes Speights.

Looking at the longer-term trend, BioNTech’s stock has fallen steeply since hitting an intraday high of $459 on 8 August. At the start of 2021, the stock was trading hands for just under $100 before enjoying a meteoric rise to that August high. The decline since then and the volatility seen in November poses a dilemma for interested investors - is the stock a bargain or are there further drops in store?

“...governments are buying COVID vaccines. They're not likely to reduce their focus on vaccinations even with oral COVID therapies on the market. Pfizer's pill will probably have minimal impact on supply deals for Comirnaty [the marketing name for the BioNTech and Pfizer vaccine] in 2022 and 2023" - Motley Fool's Keith Speights

 

 

Is BioNTech’s stock attractively priced?

Going in BioNTech’s favour is the expectation of drawing large revenues next year. In the third quarter, BioNTech delivered revenues of €6bn, a meteoric increase from the €67.5m seen in the same period last year. For the nine months ending 30 September 2021, total revenues were  €13.4bn, up from €136.9m in the same stretch last year. Driving this was the supply and sales of its COVID-19 vaccine globally.

For the full year, analysts are expecting BioNTech to deliver revenues of $19.94bn, according to data from Yahoo Finance, a whopping 3,279.2%. For full year 2022, revenue is pegged at 19.46bn, slightly down from 2021, but well above what was seen in 2019.

This month, H.C. Wainwright’s Robert Burns upped his price target on the stock from $330 to $360, along with moving his rating from Neutral to Buy. In a note to investors, Burns wrote that Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine "shall ultimately win approval" for booster doses from the FDA. 

Should approval come through then Burns reckons the long-term future of Comirnaty is assured, with the Autumn declines in the stock could present an attractive buying opportunity.

Analysts tracking BioNTech’s stock on Yahoo Finance have an average $316.71 price target, which would see a 32.9% upside on Friday’s close.

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