COIN Stock: Looking Ahead to Coinbase’s Q1 Results

Coinbase [COIN] will announce Q1 2025 results on May 8, in the midst of broader volatility for the cryptocurrency sector.

Offering a platform for both individual and institutional engagement with crypto assets, the US-based firm held the third-largest exchange volume market share in April 2025, at 6.99%.

Often used as a barometer for the digital currency industry more broadly, analysts’ expectations of a slight year-over-year EPS dip for the firm could suggest more uncertainty ahead for crypto. 

U-Turn for Crypto in the US

After four years of reticence from former US President Joe Biden — including his vetoing of legislation that would have allowed trusted financial institutions to safeguard crypto-assets — Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office have seen a sea-change.

The creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the appointment of Paul Atkins as Securities and Exchange Commission Chair, and the relaxing of SEC control tactics are just some of the ways in which Trump has created a welcoming atmosphere for crypto in Washington D.C. and beyond.

As ever, however, it has not all been plain sailing. Trump’s personal involvement with crypto — including the creation of his own $TRUMP meme token and crypto-related moves by various members of the Trump family — has prompted concern from lawmakers.

The latest in a long list of controversies is the news Trump will be offering the top 220 holders of $TRUMP an invitation to a private gala dinner with himself on May 22. The top 25 will be offered a VIP White House reception and tour the following day.

Several prominent observers and lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have expressed concern over both the security and the legitimacy of the action, which saw the coin’s value rise by more than 50% following the announcement.

While legislators have confirmed that no laws have been broken, some senators — such as Wyoming senator Cynthia Lummis, a staunch Trump supporter — have become more vocal about cryptocurrency regulation.

Lukewarm Stats

COIN is down 19.69% for the year-to-date, and 10.68% for the 12 months to May 5’s close.

These lukewarm stats belie a turbulent year for the stock, which sits 41.97% below its year-high close on December 6.

COIN enjoyed an impressive run on news of Trump’s return to the White House, leaping 80.89% between October 31 and November 11, 2024. Since then, enthusiasm has petered out on the failure of the Trump administration to deliver the expected boosts.

An initial 30.1% drop occurred in the two weeks following disappointing Q4 and FY results on February 13, and further political uncertainty has extended the dip.

All that said, the stock has been on a moderate uplift since April 8, rising 31.64% to May 5’s close. Strong Q1 2025 results this week could see this run become more sustained.

Crypto Challengers

More generally in the cryptocurrency sphere, investors continue to use exchanges as a way to manage risk while gaining exposure to digital assets.

Strategy [MSTR], formerly MicroStrategy, has tapped into this market with impressive success, more than quadrupling its market capitalization since June 30, 2024.

Despite an eye-watering P/S ratio and minimal growth forecasts, MSTR is up 216.05% for the 12 months to May 5’s close. This is, of course, primarily due to the firm’s overt rebrand to focus more closely on bitcoin, which is itself up 48.3% for the year.

With Q1 results including $5.8bn gain in bitcoin and overall holdings totaling $37.9bn, the stock offers an interesting alternative to directly holding the crypto.

Robinhood Markets’ [HOOD] story is similarly positive, with 167.69% gains for the past 12 months; Cathie Wood added 210,000 shares following quarterly earnings that saw revenue for Q1 nearing $1bn.

Source: Yahoo Finance

In short, cryptocurrency may be having a turbulent time in terms of US legislation, but there seems to be broader enthusiasm in the sector. 

COIN Stock: The Investment Case

Here are some reasons to be optimistic regarding Coinbase, but also some potentially limiting factors to consider.

The Bull Case for Coinbase

Coinbase’s performance has been mixed this year.

However, as noted, cryptocurrency is having a moment in the US. With a crypto-positive President — albeit a divisive one — it appears likely that the currencies will continue gaining popularity, particularly if a federal crypto reserve becomes a reality.

Meanwhile, Coinbase has been working hard to develop Coinbase Prime, an institutional platform that could see impressive growth: the firm’s institutional transactions rose from $90m in 2023 to $345m in 2024.

If this trend continues, COIN could well see significant upswings in the future.

The Bear Case for Coinbase

Coinbase’s main issue is the inherent uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency’s performance in the mid-term.

While most analysts and politicians now acknowledge that cryptocurrency likely has a significant place in our economic futures, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding legislation, implementation and how widespread usage will prove in the near term.

Trump’s erratic behavior, and increasing resentment from important senators, could also see more turbulence for stocks like COIN in the coming years.

Coinbase is an exchange that offers the opportunity to purchase and exchange a wide range of cryptocurrencies, including so-called meme tokens. As though bitcoin was not volatile enough, meme coins are significantly more prone to spikes and catastrophic dips based on internet sentiment.

While firms like Strategy solely have exposure to Bitcoin, COIN must weather the peaks and troughs of various cryptocurrencies, and depend on user investment rather than the current value alone. 

Conclusion

Coinbase seems to be floundering in the midst of a crypto renaissance, but positive Q1 2025 results could see this change in the near term.