RIP CLARITY. What’s Next for These Crypto-Adjacent Stocks?

For a while back there, we dared to dream. But now the CLARITY Act looks to be dead in the water.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed a procedural cloture vote on 15 September, with 49 senators voting to advance it and 50 opposed, well short of the 60 votes required.

The defeat followed months of bipartisan negotiations over the bill, which sought to establish clearer boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and provide rules governing the classification and trading of digital assets. Democrats remained opposed to the legislation in its final form, citing investor protection and concerns over President Donald Trump’s crypto interests. Four Republicans, Jerry Moran, Susan Collins, Josh Hawley and Thom Tillis, also voted against advancing it. Tillis subsequently filed a motion to reconsider, leaving open the possibility of another vote.

The timing makes a revival this year hard to imagine, however. Congress is approaching its midterm-election recess, while the House is also due to leave Washington. Polymarket currently gives 6% odds that the Act will be signed into law in 2026, down from a high of nearly 82% back in February.

In short, the industry will have to push forward without the comprehensive statutory framework it has been seeking, at least for now.

The SEC and CFTC have indicated plans to use their existing authority to bring greater regulatory clarity to digital assets. Potential areas of focus include token classification, decentralised finance (DeFi), self-custody and tokenised equities.

Further agency action could establish clearer rules for the sector without requiring Congress to pass new legislation, although agency rules can be more vulnerable to reversal under future administrations.

Overall, this setback does not seem to have concerned the sector unduly. Earlier this week, bitcoin broke above $84,000 for the first time in eight months, and leading crypto-adjacent stocks saw their share prices climb, including Coinbase [COIN], Circle [CRCL], Robinhood [HOOD] and Strategy [MSTR].

Indeed, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor wrote on X that “The rejection of CLARITY marks a positive inflexion point for Digital Assets”.

Let’s unpack that characteristically bullish statement in the context of three stocks that are intimately bound up with the successes and failures of the crypto industry: COIN, HOOD and Saylor’s own MSTR. 

CLARITY’s failure touches each of these companies in very different ways: Coinbase is exposed to market structure, Robinhood to tokenisation and new financial products, while Strategy remains primarily a bitcoin play.

Coinbase: Bad news could be good news

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, Saxo Bank strategist Ruben Dalfovo published a note saying Coinbase would face considerable fallout, as its trading business is directly exposed to US market structure rules, such as regarding registration requirements or what assets can be traded. 

COIN stock did indeed drop after the vote, but has since climbed back up. It remains down more than 11% year-to-date as of the 21 September close.

In a 20 September interview with Scott Melker, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act could actually reduce competitive pressure on the exchange by delaying clearer rules that would enable major Wall Street firms to enter crypto. 

“Every major financial services company in the world would have started integrating crypto with regulatory clarity. We would have had tons more competition,” Armstrong noted. “So in a way, honestly, it arguably could even be better for us to go under this path, because we’re one of the few companies who’s willing to go through that.”

He also revisited Coinbase’s concerns over the January draft, which centred on tokenised equities, penalties for DeFi developers, CFTC authority over spot markets and stablecoin rewards. Armstrong said all four issues had been addressed in the latest Senate version, removing Coinbase’s previous objections.

COIN’s short- to mid-term prospects remain closely tied to crypto-market activity, with weaker trading volumes already weighing on transaction revenue and profitability in 2026.

However, Coinbase is becoming less dependent on spot trading, with subscription and services revenue reaching $555m in Q2 and accounting for 48% of net revenue, while stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets and Base provide additional growth avenues.

Robinhood: Betting on tokenisation beyond CLARITY

Robinhood’s post-CLARITY outlook is tied less to the legislation itself than to whether regulators can provide workable rules for crypto, tokenisation and prediction markets through agency action. The Senate setback removes a potential catalyst for Robinhood’s US tokenisation ambitions, but the company already has significant exposure to the theme through Robinhood Chain and its stock token offering, while the SEC’s subsequent five-year innovation exemption for tokenised equities provides an alternative regulatory pathway.

The broader business also gives HOOD some insulation from a weaker crypto-regulatory backdrop: Q2 revenue rose 32% year-on-year to $1.31bn, while crypto revenue fell 38% to $100m, offset by stronger equities, options and event-contract activity.

For the short to medium term, the key question is whether Robinhood can turn its expanding product suite into sustained transaction and subscription growth while continuing to build its crypto and tokenisation infrastructure. The CLARITY failure leaves the regulatory framework less durable and more fragmented, but Bernstein has argued that SEC and CFTC rulemaking could still provide a route to greater clarity, with Robinhood among the crypto-exposed stocks it continues to favour.

HOOD stock similarly took a dent following the vote, but has since climbed back up. It is now up more than 9% year-to-date.

Strategy: The bitcoin bet rolls on

Lastly, we have the OG crypto-proxy stock. For Strategy, the failure of the CLARITY Act is less directly material to the business than it is for crypto exchanges or tokenisation platforms. The company’s core proposition remains its bitcoin treasury strategy, with regulatory developments around market structure, custody and institutional participation potentially affecting the wider environment for digital assets rather than Strategy’s operating model itself.

The main near-term driver for MSTR remains bitcoin’s price and the company’s ability to continue raising capital to acquire more BTC. Strategy held more than 845,000 bitcoin by September 2026, making it one of the largest corporate holders, while its use of preferred stock and convertible debt gives it multiple channels for funding further purchases. That structure can amplify upside when bitcoin rises, but also leaves shareholders exposed to the risks associated with bitcoin volatility, financing costs and the premium or discount at which MSTR trades relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings.

CLARITY’s failure nevertheless matters at the margin because clearer US rules could encourage greater institutional participation in crypto markets. Its setback leaves that process more dependent on SEC and CFTC rulemaking, potentially making the regulatory path less predictable. For Strategy, however, the more immediate consideration is whether bitcoin adoption and institutional demand continue to expand, supporting the valuation of its treasury assets and its ability to raise capital on attractive terms.

In the short to medium term, therefore, MSTR is likely to remain primarily a leveraged vehicle for investors seeking bitcoin exposure through a listed company, with CLARITY representing a secondary regulatory consideration rather than a central investment driver.

MSTR stock also wobbled post-vote but has now resumed its climb, and is up nearly 11% year-to-date. 

Source: Yahoo Finance

Conclusion: What’s next for crypto?

CLARITY’s failure leaves the crypto industry without the comprehensive regulatory framework it had been working towards, but it has not stopped the sector from moving ahead. For Coinbase, the setback could delay competition from traditional financial firms while the exchange continues diversifying beyond trading; Robinhood remains exposed to the longer-term potential of tokenisation and prediction markets; and Strategy’s fortunes remain overwhelmingly tied to bitcoin rather than Washington. 

With the SEC and CFTC signalling a willingness to use existing powers, some regulatory progress may still be possible without Congress. For investors, the three stocks offer distinctly different ways to gain exposure to crypto’s continuing evolution.