OPEN Stock: Will AI Be the Key to Opendoor’s Success?

Opendoor [OPEN] is a proptech “iBuyer” — a platform that makes instant cash offers on homes, whether for buying, renovating or reselling. It was founded in 2014 and taken public via SPAC in 2020.

Over time, its trajectory has been volatile. The core iBuying business implies heavy capital intensity and narrow margins, and Opendoor has never been consistently profitable. In recent quarters, the company has sought to stabilize operations and cut losses. It has also pivoted toward an agent-led, AI-first model, expanding services like mortgages, title, home warranty and tools for partner agents.

In recent weeks, Opendoor has generated attention through a steep stock rally, driven in part by retail trading and new leadership moves.

OPEN stock is up 605% over the last six months, although there are signs this trajectory might be levelling out: it is only up 79% over the last month.  

Q2 Earnings and Recent News

In Q2 2025, Opendoor reported revenue of roughly $1.6bn, up 4% year-over-year and slightly ahead of expectations. Contribution profit reached $69m — a 4.4% margin — while adjusted EBITDA came in at $23m, marking its first positive result on that basis in nearly three years. 

The company still posted a net loss of $0.04 per share, missing consensus by a cent, but the results signaled early progress in its cost-cutting and its operational reset. 

Opendoor ended the quarter with about 4,500 homes in inventory valued at $1.5bn, alongside $789m in unrestricted cash and $7.8bn in borrowing capacity, suggesting improved liquidity discipline after a turbulent 2023–24.

Guidance remains cautious: management expects Q3 revenue to fall to $800m–875m, with full-year contribution margins between 2.8% and 3.3%. The company also expects adjusted EBITDA to remain slightly negative for 2025, reflecting the costs of scaling its new business model.

On the earnings call, outgoing CEO Carrie Wheeler emphasized that, over the past decade, “we’ve built deep infrastructure in real estate, pricing intelligence, operational capabilities and a marketing engine that reaches high-intensity sellers. In doing so, we’ve amassed an unparalleled dataset, photos, videos, agent notes and customer interactions from millions of home visits. This proprietary data fuels our AI, and that AI powers our flagship product, the cash offer, which delivers what traditional sales cannot: speed, certainty and control.”

Beyond earnings, Opendoor’s news flow has been dominated by a leadership reshuffle.

In mid-September the firm announced that co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu would return to the board while Kaz Nejatian, the former COO of Shopify [SHOP] would take over as CEO. Opendoor announced a $40m equity infusion tied to those changes. 

Elsewhere, Opendoor settled a $39m US investor class action alleging misleading claims about its AI pricing technology.

These moves, paired with retail-driven momentum, have pushed the stock sharply higher, but profitability and housing-market resilience remain key tests for the turnaround.

Tech in Real Estate: OPEN vs RKT vs Z

Let’s see how OPEN stock measures up against two other companies in the same broad space.

Rocket Companies [RKT] is an American fintech and homeownership services company. It is a prominent player in the mortgage and personal finance sectors, offering a range of services through its digital platforms. Recently, Rocket has been expanding its services to include more comprehensive financial solutions, aiming to become a one-stop shop for consumers’ financial needs. The company’s strategic initiatives focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and streamline financial processes.

Zillow [Z] is a real estate marketplace that shifted away from iBuying to focus on its “housing super app”, integrating search, agent tools, rentals, mortgages and advertising. It is seeking profitability via software, data and services. Rather like Opendoor, the company aims to leverage its vast data resources to provide more personalized and efficient services to consumers and real estate professionals.  

Source: Yahoo Finance

When comparing Opendoor, Zillow and Rocket, the lines blur between marketplace, services and transaction business models. Opendoor is more capital-intensive, owning real estate inventory and acting as principal; Zillow and Rocket mainly act as facilitators.

As of October 1, Z stock is trading at $77.05 per share, RKT stock at $19.38 and OPEN stock at $7.97. Zillow’s higher share price reflects its established position in the real estate marketplace, while Opendoor’s lower share price may indicate a more volatile market perception.

In terms of valuation, Zillow’s P/S ratio is approximately 7.92, indicating a premium valuation relative to its revenue. Rocket’s P/S ratio is around 0.64, the lowest of the three, and Opendoor’s P/S ratio is about 122, reflecting a more modest valuation compared to its revenue.

Zillow’s higher multiple may be due to its diversified service offerings and established market position. Opendoor’s lower valuation may be attributed to its more niche focus and recent market performance, whereas Rocket’s may suggest the stock is undervalued compared to its attractive growth forecast. 

OPEN Stock: The Investment Case

The Bull Case for Opendoor

Opendoor’s tech-first approach has the potential to redefine real estate transactions. Its AI-powered pricing, agent-led services and complementary offerings create a vertically integrated platform. Positive Q2 metrics, including contribution profitability and adjusted EBITDA gains, suggest operational leverage. With co-founders returning to the board and a new CEO, the company is clearly strengthening its strategic focus. In a stable or rising housing market, Opendoor’s balance sheet allows it to scale quickly and capture market share from traditional brokerages. Innovation, brand recognition and retail momentum could drive both revenue growth and multiple expansion.

The Bear Case for Opendoor

Opendoor faces significant risks as a capital-intensive iBuyer. Its reliance on holding inventory exposes it to housing market volatility, interest-rate fluctuations and declining home prices. Margins remain thin, and sustained losses could pressure cash flow despite a strong balance sheet. Operational execution is critical, and any missteps in scaling its AI-first model could hurt growth. Retail-driven stock volatility adds further uncertainty, making Opendoor vulnerable to market swings.

Conclusion

Opendoor balances high operational risk with disruptive potential. Bear-case scenarios hinge on market volatility and execution missteps, while bull-case outcomes rely on scaling its AI-first platform and housing-market stability. Investors must weigh immediate losses against long-term platform growth and strategic positioning.