The Week Ahead: US PPI, JPMorgan, Taiwan Semi

While geopolitical developments – particularly oil prices and tensions in the Middle East – are set to remain in focus, traders’ attention will also turn to the start of a fresh US earnings season, led by major banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Later in the week, streaming giant Netflix and key AI stock Taiwan Semiconductor will also report first-quarter results. On the macroeconomic front, the US producer price index (PPI) should provide further insights into inflation trends amid the surge in energy prices.

US March PPI

Tuesday 14 April

Alongside the release of March consumer price index data on Friday 10 April, the PPI report should give traders a clearer picture of US inflation. Recent survey data, including the ISM’s services and manufacturing indices, suggest that price pressures may be building more quickly than many observers expected, with elevated prices paid components pointing to the risk of a stronger PPI reading for March.

Markets will focus in particular on PPI report components such as airfares, portfolio management fees and healthcare services, since these feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE report.

A firm PPI reading for March might reinforce concerns that US inflation, already elevated in February, could remain persistent, potentially increasing pressure on the Fed to consider raising interest rates, or at least keeping them at current levels for longer.

The prospect of rates staying higher for longer may strengthen the dollar against its peers in the near term. After declining in February and March, EUR/USD this month moved above a downtrend near $1.16. On Friday the pair climbed to $1.17. However, the rebound has so far been limited, with EUR/USD retracing just 38.2% of its recent decline. This suggests that the broader downtrend may remain intact. A high US PPI reading on Tuesday could see dollar strength resume, potentially sending EUR/USD lower.

EUR/USD, June 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings

Tuesday 14 April

Analysts expect JPMorgan to report that its first-quarter earnings grew 10.8% year-on-year to $5.44 a share, as revenue rose an estimated 6.9% to $49.2bn. Looking ahead to Q2, earnings are projected to increase 7.9% to $5.35 a share, driven by revenue growth of 6.5% to $48.6bn.

The options market implies that the bank’s shares – up more than a third in the past 12 months at approximately $310 – could move 4% in either direction following Tuesday’s earnings release.

Options positioning appears bullish, which may create a barrier to further upside. Key resistance levels are around $310 to $315, while downside support looks limited until the $280 to $285 range. Positioning also suggests the risk of negative option flows after the release, which could weigh on the shares.

Technical analysis indicates that the stock, a component of the Dow Jones, is testing resistance near $311, aligning with the upper boundary of a declining channel that has been in place since the stock peaked in early 2026. A break above $312 could open the way towards $325. Failure to do so may result in a pullback towards $298, with further downside potential towards $280 if that level does not hold.

JPM share price, April 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Q1 earnings

Thursday 16 April

Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to report Q1 earnings growth of 54% year-on-year to $3.27 a share, boosted by a 37.5% surge in revenue to $35.1bn, based on analysts’ estimates. Gross profit margin is forecast to come in at 60.7%, with capital expenditure broadly stable at $11.7bn.

Guidance for Q2 will be important given the company’s central role in the AI trade. Analysts see earnings increasing 42.7% to $3.55 a share, with revenue projected to grow 24.5% to $37.7bn. Gross margin is expected to expand to 63.7%, while capex is forecast to rise 7% to $15.5bn.

Options market positioning suggests that the stock could move 6% post-earnings. The chipmaker’s NYSE-listed shares have soared more than 140% in the past year to about $365.

Options positioning is relatively bullish, which may leave TSM stock exposed to a pullback as implied volatility falls and hedging flows unwind. Resistance is seen around $370, with limited support emerging near $330.

From a technical perspective, the stock has struggled to build momentum since peaking in February. Resistance remains firm near $380, with a break above prior highs around $390 needed to signal a sustained move higher. On the downside, a gap near $345 and support between $310 and $330 may come into focus if the shares weaken after the results.

TSM share price, August 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView}

Market Calendar

Monday 13 April

• US: IMF meeting (to Saturday 18 April), March existing home sales change

• Results: Fastenal (Q1), Goldman Sachs (Q1)

Tuesday 14 April

• Australia: April Westpac consumer confidence index

• US: March producer price index (PPI), ADP four-week average employment change

• Results: BlackRock (Q1), Citigroup (Q1), Johnson & Johnson (Q1), JP Morgan Chase (Q1), Wells Fargo (Q1)

Wednesday 15 April

• Results: Bank of America (Q1), JB Hunt Transport (Q1), M&T Bank (Q1), Morgan Stanley (Q1), PNC Financial Services (Q1), Progressive (Q1), Saga (FY)

Thursday 16 April

• Australia: March employment change, March unemployment rate

• US: Weekly initial jobless claims, March industrial production

• Results: Abbott Laboratories (Q1), Bank of New York Mellon (Q1), Citizens Financial (Q1), Marsh (Q1), Netflix (Q1), PepsiCo (Q1), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Q1), Tesco (FY), Travelers Companies (Q1), US Bancorp (Q1)

Friday 17 April

• Results: Fifth Third Bancorp (Q1), State Street (Q1), Truist Financial (Q1)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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