The Week Ahead: US inflation, UK economic growth, CoreWeave earnings

Traders are in for a busy week, with plenty of economic data on the calendar. The highlights include US consumer price index (CPI) figures for July, and UK gross domestic product (GDP) data for the three months to the end of June, both of which we look at in more detail below. Other data points to watch include the latest US producer price index and retail sales data, out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Earnings season may be winding down, but the market still awaits Nvidia’s second-quarter results on Wednesday 27 August. In the meantime, we pick out CoreWeave, a smaller player in the artificial intelligence and data centre sector, which is set to report Q2 earnings on Tuesday.

US July CPI

Tuesday 12 August 

Inflation in the US is expected to have edged higher in July, at least on an annual basis. Analysts estimate that consumer prices rose 2.8% in the year to July, up from 2.7% in June. Month-on-month, inflation ran at an estimated 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% in June. Core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.0% year-on-year in July, accelerating from June’s 2.9%, and increased 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in June, according to analysts. The swaps market indicates that inflation could continue to rise in the remainder of 2025

A higher-than-expected CPI reading might be most damaging to the Nasdaq 100, which has risen by more than a third since the post-tariff announcement lows of 8 April. The gains have been supported by market hopes that the US Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates. But if inflation comes in higher than expected, the Fed may further delay rate cuts. That could deliver a significant blow to the stock market. Particularly now, as the index has broken down from a rising-wedge pattern and is approaching a critical trend line.  

Currently, support for the tech-heavy index lies at the trend line near 23,000. However, a break below this line could trigger a decline to the next area of support at around 22,600, or possibly towards a gap near 21,800. Should the Nasdaq 100 hold above support and move higher, resistance may emerge near the upper boundary of the trading channel at around 23,800. 

CoreWeave Q2 earnings

Tuesday 12 August 

CoreWeave, a New Jersey-based AI company with a market capitalisation of roughly $59bn, is expected to post a second-quarter loss of $0.21 per share on revenue of $1.08bn, according to analysts’ estimates. Gross margins for the quarter are projected to rise to 74.4%, up from 62.6% in the first quarter. For the third quarter, analysts forecast a loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of $1 25bn, with gross margins at 74.2%. Shares of the Nasdaq-listed business, which specialises in cloud-based infrastructure technology, are up more than 200% this year at approximately $121. Options market pricing indicates that the stock could rise or fall 15.9% post-earnings.

As the chart below illustrates, CoreWeave shares found support near $100 in late July and early August, and now appear to be gaining upward momentum. The stock has moved above its 10-day exponential moving average (the blue line), and the relative strength index – a closely watched momentum indicator – is also rising. If the shares break above resistance at $124, they could advance towards $147. However, should support at $100 fail, the shares may fall back towards $66.

UK Q2 GDP

Thursday 14 August

UK economic growth has been sluggish for some time – you’d have to go back to the fourth quarter of 2021 for the last time quarterly GDP growth exceeded 1%. In a bid to stimulate economic growth, the Bank of England narrowly voted to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4% on Thursday 7 August. However, the market doesn’t expect another rate cut until December. If the BoE keeps rates on hold and the Fed begins cutting rates in September, the pound could benefit.

A case could be made that GBP/USD bottomed after hitting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the neckline of its recent head-and-shoulders pattern. Since that bottoming out, the pound has rebounded, breaking back above resistance at $1.345. Sterling could rise further if second-quarter GDP signals that the UK economy is strengthening. 

After the economy contracted 0.1% month-on-month in May, following a 0.3% contraction in April, signs of a turnaround in GDP figures could help push GBP/USD higher, potentially back towards $1.36. However, a failure to overcome resistance at $1.345 might trigger a reversal, sending the pair back down towards support around $1.30.

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Saturday 9 August

• China: July consumer price index (CPI)

Monday 11 August

• Italy: July CPI
• Results : AST SpaceMobile (Q2)

Tuesday 12 August

• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision 
• UK: June unemployment rate, July claimant count change
• US: July CPI
• Results: CoreWeave (Q2), Derwent London (HY), Entain (HY), Sea Limited (Q2), Spirax (HY)

Wednesday 13 August

• Australia: Q2 wage price index
• Germany: July Harmonised CPI
• Results: Balfour Beatty (HY), Beazley (HY), Cisco (Q4), Hill & Smith (HY), Persimmon (HY)

Thursday 14 August 

• Australia: July unemployment rate, July employment change
• Eurozone: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• Japan: Q2 GDP
• UK: Q2 GDP
• US: July producer price index (PPI), Weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: Admiral (HY), Antofagasta (HY), Applied Materials (Q3), Aviva (HY), Deere & Co (Q3), JD.com (Q2), NetEase (Q2), Nu (Q2) 

Friday 15 August 

• China: July retail sales, July industrial production 
• US: July retail sales, August flash Michigan consumer sentiment index
• Results: Flowers Foods (Q2)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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