The Week Ahead: Palantir earnings, US services PMI, Bank of England decision

Are we entering the calm after the storm? With peak earnings season now behind us and the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings out of the way (both central banks held interest rates steady, as expected), there will be a slowdown in economic and company data this coming week, giving traders some much-needed respite after a period of information overload. The equity market has escaped the barrage of headlines relatively unscathed, even with the passing of the 1 August tariff deadline. US indices were bolstered in the past week by positive results from tech giants Meta, Microsoft and Apple. Can the likes of Palantir, Advanced Micro Devices and Disney extend the good news flow? 

Palantir Q2 results

Monday 4 August

Analysts expect Palantir to report that second-quarter earnings grew 53.1% to $0.14 per share, as revenue surged an estimated 38.6% to $939.9m. Capital expenditure is forecast to have more than doubled in the quarter to $7.2bn, up from $2.9bn a year earlier.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, analysts anticipate earnings growth of 43% to $0.14 per share, and revenue growth of 35.5% to $982.9m. Capex in Q3 is projected to rise almost 90% year-on-year to $7.5bn, up from $4bn a year ago. Options market pricing indicates a potential 10.3% post-earnings move higher or lower for the Palantir share price, which has soared more than 110% this year to close at $158.35 on Thursday 31 July.

From a technical perspective, shares of the Nasdaq-listed technology company – whose software helps organisations, governments and corporations analyse complex datasets – appear to be entering a potentially bearish phase. The stock has formed a rising-wedge pattern, which is supported by declining trade volumes. Typically, a rising wedge is viewed as a bearish reversal pattern, though such patterns can sometimes be unreliable and may not always unfold as anticipated. However, should this pattern persist, it could suggest that Palantir shares may revert to the origin of the pattern at approximately $130.

However, if the pattern does not play out as expected, the shares could continue to rally. That said, upside potential may be limited, given the significant concentration of options positioning around the $170 level, which is likely to act as resistance.

US July ISM services PMI

Tuesday 5 August 

This purchasing managers’ index produced by the Institute for Supply Management offers an indication of the health of the US services sector. The index has been trending lower in the past year, indicating that activity in the sector is declining. After peaking at a reading of 56 in October 2024, the index had fallen to 50.8 by June. If the July reading dips below 50, that would indicate that the US services economy has entered a contraction phase. 

Such a development could negatively impact the US dollar, which has recently shown signs of recovery against other major currencies, buoyed by indications of a stronger US economy. However, a robust ISM reading, indicating that the service-sector slowdown has passed, could boost the dollar, posing a substantial downside risk for gold.

Since April, gold has failed to surpass resistance at $3,425 on four separate occasions. Furthermore, prices have recently broken below the upward trendline. Gold is now consolidating near support at $3,275. Should this support level fail, gold could decline further, possibly towards $3,100.

Bank of England rate decision

Thursday 7 August

The market is pricing in a quarter-point cut to interest rates at this month’s meeting. Market-watchers also expect the Bank of England to signal at least one more cut before the end of the year. If policymakers strike a dovish tone (favouring lower rates to stimulate economic growth), there could be a significant impact on the pound, which has already begun to weaken against the dollar. Technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD is nearing the completion of a head-and-shoulders pattern, potentially driving the pair down to $1.308. At the start of July, GBP/USD was trading at more than $1.37. 

That said, GBP/USD is also approaching oversold conditions, with the relative strength index (RSI) declining to 31 and the currency pair nearing its lower Bollinger Band. Should the BoE adopt a more hawkish stance (favouring higher rates to control inflation), GBP/USD could rebound towards the 20-day moving average and resistance level near $1.343.

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 28 July

• UK: July shop price index
• Results: Cadence Design Systems (Q2)

Tuesday 29 July

• Spain: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• US: May housing price index, June JOLTS job openings, July consumer confidence index
• Results: AstraZeneca (HY), Barclays (HY), Boeing (Q2), Booking (Q2), Games Workshop (FY), Greggs (HY), Mondelez International (Q2), PayPal (Q2), Procter & Gamble (Q4), Spotify (Q2), Starbucks (Q3), UnitedHealth (Q2), United Parcel Service (Q2), Visa (Q3)

Wednesday 30 July

• Australia: June and Q2 consumer price index (CPI)
• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• Eurozone: Q2 GDP, July business climate 
• France: Q2 GDP
• Germany: Q2 GDP, June retail sales
• Italy: Q2 GDP
• Japan: June retail trade
• Spain: July harmonised CPI
• US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Q2 GDP, July ADP employment change
• Results: Altria (Q2), Arm (Q1), Automatic Data Processing (Q4), BAE Systems (HY), Carvana (Q2), eBay (Q2), Ford (Q2), Garmin (Q2), GSK (HY), HSBC (HY), Meta Platforms (Q2), Microsoft (Q4), Qualcomm (Q3), Rio Tinto (HY), Robinhood Markets (Q2) 

Thursday 31 July

• Australia: June retail sales
• Canada: May GDP
• China: July purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
• Germany: July CPI
• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, June unemployment rate
• Switzerland: June retail sales 
• US: June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: AbbVie (Q2), Amazon (Q2), Anglo American (HY), Apple (Q3), British American Tobacco (HY), Coinbase (Q2), Comcast (Q2), Haleon (HY), London Stock Exchange Group (HY), Mastercard (Q2), MicroStrategy (Q2), Rentokil Initial (HY), Roblox (Q2), Rolls Royce (HY), S&P Global (Q2), Shell (Q2), Southern (Q2), Standard Chartered (HY), Stryker (Q2), Unilever (HY)

Friday 1 August 

• Australia: Q2 producer price index (PPI)
• China: July Caixin manufacturing PMI
• Eurozone: July harmonised CPI
• US: July jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, average earnings and unemployment rate; July ISM manufacturing PMI
• Results: Chevron (Q2), Exxon Mobil (Q2), Linde (Q2), Pearson (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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