The Week Ahead: Nvidia, Tokyo CPI, US PPI

This week may not offer many headlines, but it could prove the most important of the earnings season, with Nvidia due to report results after the close of New York trading on Wednesday. It’s not only Nvidia investors who will be nervous ahead of the company’s results; the entire global equity market may well be on edge, given the importance of the AI trade.

It would not be surprising to see measures of implied volatility, such as the VIX 1-Day, rise sharply ahead of Nvidia’s results and then fall sharply the day after the company reports. That sharp decline in implied volatility could lift the S&P 500 regardless of Nvidia’s actual results, as volatility often resets once the anxiety subsides, potentially triggering a mechanical ‘relief rally.’

Nvidia Q4 earnings

Wednesday 25 February

The Nasdaq-listed company with the world’s largest market capitalisation of $4.5tn, is expected to report earnings growth of 71.4% year-on-year to $1.53 per share for Q4. Meanwhile, revenue for the quarter is expected to rise 67.5% year-on-year to $65.9bn, with gross margins expanding sequentially to 75% from 73.6%. Guidance may matter more, with analysts expecting fiscal Q1 2027 earnings to rise by 74% to $1.67 per share, while revenue climbs 62.7% to $71.7bn. Margins are expected to remain broadly flat at 74.9%. The stock is expected to move by around 6.2% following the results.

Implied volatility for options expiring on 27 February is around 60% and is likely to climb towards 100% by the time the company reports on Wednesday afternoon. Given the overly bullish options positioning, there is a strong possibility that, once the company reports and implied volatility falls, hedging flows could push the shares lower. That is unless the company delivers stunning results that far exceed market expectations, pushing the shares above $200.

Technically, the chart shows similar limitations, with $195 acting as resistance since November and $170 as support. At this point, a failure to break above $195 following the results might lead to the shares falling back towards support, with a break below $170 unlikely to come easily on the first attempt, since both options and technical support appear strong there.

Nvidia share price, January 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Tokyo, Germany February CPI

Thursday 26 February (Tokyo CPI)

Friday 27 February (Germany CPI)

Inflation readings in both Tokyo and Germany have been relatively subdued in recent months, with Tokyo’s consumer price index (CPI) falling well below 2%, and German inflation hovering around the 2% mark. Further evidence of inflation stalling in Germany and Tokyo could reduce the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates sooner, or justify the European Central Bank remaining on hold for longer, which in turn could lead to further dollar strength.

While there are many reasons silver has advanced, perhaps the most basic explanation is dollar weakness. A clear case can be made that since mid-November, as the dollar has weakened, silver has rallied, and as the dollar has bottomed, silver has peaked. Should the dollar strengthen following these inflation reports, it could be another reason for silver to weaken further.

Silver Cash Price - YTD

US January PPI

Friday 27 February

The January producer price index is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in December. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is also forecast to increase 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.7%. Overall, the year-on-year rate of change in PPI has accelerated from 2.6% in September to 3.3% in December.

PPI is considered important because it feeds into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index. A hotter-than-expected reading, or trends that continue to point to rising producer prices, may weigh on rate-cut expectations. That would generally be supportive for the dollar and may help explain why we’re suddenly seeing GBP/USD, as the market prices in decelerating UK inflation alongside fewer expected rate cuts in the US.

GBP/USD is currently finding support at its 200-day moving average. A break below that level could open the door to a decline towards around $1.334, while a bounce from support could see the pound rally towards approximately $1.352.

Silver (XAG/USD) and US Dollar Index (DXY), February 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar - Economic Data

Market Calendar - Earnings

Earnings dates are shown in US market time. As results are often released pre or post market, the local calendar day may differ in Australia and New Zealand.

In general:

• US pre market releases appear late evening in Australia and after midnight in New Zealand

• US post market releases appear the following morning in both Australia and New Zealand

As a result, some earnings listed for a US date may be seen on the next calendar day locally. Please check specific local timings where relevant.

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