The Week Ahead: ISM data, Broadcom, US jobs

This week US economic data will come thick and fast, with the ISM manufacturing and services reports, the ADP private payrolls release and the US non-farm payrolls report all scheduled.

Alongside this, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to remain central to traders’ focus, with chipmaker Broadcom set to report its first-quarter results on Wednesday. Following the downbeat market reaction to Nvidia’s Q4 results, there may be added pressure on Broadcom to present a clearer and more convincing outlook for investors.

US February ISM data

Monday 2 March (manufacturing PMI)

Wednesday 4 March (services PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports will provide a snapshot of how the US manufacturing and services sectors performed in February. The manufacturing report is expected to show that the sector remained in expansion territory with a reading of 52.3, albeit down slightly from 52.6 in January. Meanwhile, activity in the services sector is thought to have edged up, with an expected reading of 54, versus 53.8 in January.

These reports – widely regarded as a barometer of the health of the US economy – are likely to influence whether the dollar’s recent rebound can continue.

In particular, AUD/USD may be sensitive to the data. Given Australia’s commodity heavy economy, with key exports including iron ore, coal, gold, natural gas and agricultural products, the Australian dollar can be influenced by global growth signals, China related demand and shifts in overall risk sentiment.

The pair is currently trading near 0.705, not far from recent multi year highs around 0.714, supported by relatively resilient domestic conditions and expectations around RBA policy.

AUD/USD, 2026 YTD

^{Source: TradingView}

Broadcom Q1 earnings

Wednesday 4 March

The Nasdaq-listed semiconductor company is expected to report that its Q1 earnings grew 26.3% to $2.02 a share as revenue surged 28.3% to $19.1bn, based on analyst estimates. Gross margin is forecast to come in at 76.8%. Guidance will be a key area of focus. Analysts are forecasting Q2 revenue growth of 37.1% to $20.6bn, though gross margins are expected to contract sequentially to 76.4%. The options market implies that the stock – down 7.5% this year at $321.70, as at Thursday’s close – may move 8.3% in either direction following the Q1 results.

Implied volatility for options expiring on 6 March is above 80% and may continue rising ahead of Wednesday’s earnings announcement. Positioning appears more mixed than for comparable recent earnings announcements. Based on current pricing and positioning, the stock may have upside potential, with strong resistance around $350, particularly if traders reduce their hedges and option premiums decline.

From a technical analysis perspective, resistance near $350 has been in place since January. To the downside, support sits at around $300. A sustained move below $300 could weaken the near-term outlook, potentially exposing the shares to further downside towards $285.

Broadcom share price, June 2025 - present

^{Source: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US February jobs report

Friday 6 March

Economists estimate that the US economy added 60,000 jobs in February, down from 130,000 in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%, while growth in average hourly earnings is expected to ease to 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4%.

This will be a closely watched release. Although another jobs report is due before the next Federal Reserve meeting (17-18 March), this update will help traders assess whether US labour market conditions are strengthening. If the payrolls print comfortably beats expectations, as the January figure did, the positive economic news could dampen rate-cut expectations, potentially weighing on sentiment towards the major US stock indices.

The Nasdaq 100 has essentially moved sideways since October and appears to be waiting for a fresh catalyst. A robust jobs report, while positive for workers and the overall economy, may reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March, removing a potential boost for equities. The tech-heavy index has struggled to sustain a move above 25,800, which remains a key resistance level.

If traders continue to push back their rate-cut expectations, downside risks may build. Initial support for the Nasdaq 100 is around 24,400. A decisive break below this level could lead to a decline back towards the November lows around 23,850.

US 100, 17 October 2025 - present

^{Source: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Market Calendar - Economic Data

Market Calendar - Earnings

Earnings dates are shown in US market time. As results are often released pre or post market, the local calendar day may differ in Australia and New Zealand.

In general:

• US pre market releases appear late evening in Australia and after midnight in New Zealand

• US post market releases appear the following morning in both Australia and New Zealand

As a result, some earnings listed for a US date may be seen on the next calendar day locally. Please check specific local timings where relevant.

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