The Week Ahead: Fed, BoJ rate decisions; Apple earnings; US jobs

We’re heading into one of the busiest weeks of 2025. It’s the peak of earnings season, various central banks will meet to set interest rates, the US jobs report for July is out on Friday 1 August, and on that same day president Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs may become a reality for countries that fail to secure a trade deal. 

US corporate earnings are set to take centre stage. Four of the ‘magnificent seven’ group of leading US tech stocks – Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta – are due to report. Below, we focus on iPhone maker Apple, which is expected to post third-quarter revenue of almost $90bn. Note: Michael Kramer and his clients at Mott Capital Management own shares in Apple. 

Central bank rate decisions

Wednesday 30 July (US Federal Reserve), Thursday 31 July (Bank of Japan)

Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their upcoming monetary policy meetings. However, analysts also reckon the Fed could cut rates later this year. As for the BoJ, there is uncertainty around when or if policymakers will hike rates from current low levels. The coming week’s meetings might shed light on these matters, and the market will be listening closely for any clues.

Rate-setting meetings in the US and Japan are also likely to affect the dollar-yen exchange rate. Since USD/JPY bottomed out near ¥141 per dollar in mid-April, it has trended higher. In recent days the pair has approached ¥148, a key resistance level, after rebounding off the 20-day moving average. Provided that the 20-day moving average continues to hold as support, USD/JPY could continue its rise towards and possibly past ¥148.

However, if the Fed adopts a more dovish stance and signals a potential rate cut in September, or if the BoJ adopts a more hawkish, pro-hike tone, then USD/JPY could fall. In this scenario, the pair might break support and slip towards the ¥143 level.

Apple Q3 results

Thursday 31 July 

Analysts estimate that Apple’s fiscal third-quarter revenue grew approximately 4.1% to $89.3bn, with earnings rising 2.1% to $1.43 a share. Gross margin – likely to be the subject of investor scrutiny given the increase in US tariffs on imports – is projected to come in at 45.9%, down from 46.3% in the year-ago period.

Looking ahead, analysts forecast fourth-quarter revenue growth of 3.1% to $97.5bn, with gross margin expected to remain stable at 45.9%. The market anticipates a 4% movement in the Apple stock price following the earnings release. Shares of the Nasdaq-listed company were down more than 12% year-to-date at $213.76, as of Thursday’s close. 

For options traders, an area of gamma-based resistance suggests that Apple shares may struggle to surpass $220 in the near term. The technical chart below supports this view. It reveals a significant price gap near $220 stemming from the post-‘Liberation Day’ sell-off in April. This gap could cap upside potential, even if the stock manages to breach resistance at $214.

Meanwhile, to the downside, if Apple bosses report that tariffs are having a more serious negative impact on margins than expected, the stock could break its current uptrend and drop towards a support region between $195 and $200.

US July jobs report

Friday 1 August

Consensus estimates point to a subdued jobs report. Analysts estimate that the US economy added 102,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to have edged higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1% a month earlier. Mind you, the US labour market has consistently defied expectations, repeatedly surprising analysts and markets with stronger-than-expected numbers. It remains to be seen whether this time will be different.

If the non-farm payrolls print again surprises to the upside, it could bolster the dollar against the euro. EUR/USD – trading at just above $1.1730 on Friday – appears to be at a turning point. The pair has risen sharply in recent months. In July it hit its highest levels since 2021. However, technical analysis now points to a possible trend reversal, with the pair’s 23 July high being lower than the 1 July high. EUR/USD also seems to have broken below the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that the euro could weaken further against the dollar. A drop below $1.17 could presage a move back towards $1.145.

Economic and company events calendar

Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 28 July

• UK: July shop price index
• Results: Cadence Design Systems (Q2)

Tuesday 29 July

• Spain: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• US: May housing price index, June JOLTS job openings, July consumer confidence index
• Results: AstraZeneca (HY), Barclays (HY), Boeing (Q2), Booking (Q2), Games Workshop (FY), Greggs (HY), Mondelez International (Q2), PayPal (Q2), Procter & Gamble (Q4), Spotify (Q2), Starbucks (Q3), UnitedHealth (Q2), United Parcel Service (Q2), Visa (Q3)

Wednesday 30 July

• Australia: June and Q2 consumer price index (CPI)
• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• Eurozone: Q2 GDP, July business climate 
• France: Q2 GDP
• Germany: Q2 GDP, June retail sales
• Italy: Q2 GDP
• Japan: June retail trade
• Spain: July harmonised CPI
• US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Q2 GDP, July ADP employment change
• Results: Altria (Q2), Arm (Q1), Automatic Data Processing (Q4), BAE Systems (HY), Carvana (Q2), eBay (Q2), Ford (Q2), Garmin (Q2), GSK (HY), HSBC (HY), Meta Platforms (Q2), Microsoft (Q4), Qualcomm (Q3), Rio Tinto (HY), Robinhood Markets (Q2) 

Thursday 31 July

• Australia: June retail sales
• Canada: May GDP
• China: July purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
• Germany: July CPI
• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, June unemployment rate
• Switzerland: June retail sales 
• US: June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: AbbVie (Q2), Amazon (Q2), Anglo American (HY), Apple (Q3), British American Tobacco (HY), Coinbase (Q2), Comcast (Q2), Haleon (HY), London Stock Exchange Group (HY), Mastercard (Q2), MicroStrategy (Q2), Rentokil Initial (HY), Roblox (Q2), Rolls Royce (HY), S&P Global (Q2), Shell (Q2), Southern (Q2), Standard Chartered (HY), Stryker (Q2), Unilever (HY)

Friday 1 August 

• Australia: Q2 producer price index (PPI)
• China: July Caixin manufacturing PMI
• Eurozone: July harmonised CPI
• US: July jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, average earnings and unemployment rate; July ISM manufacturing PMI
• Results: Chevron (Q2), Exxon Mobil (Q2), Linde (Q2), Pearson (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.

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