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USD/JPY tests critical support after latest intervention

USD/JPY has fallen sharply after another round of intervention, leaving the 155 support area back in focus. The pair is now technically oversold, but a decisive break below 155 could open the way towards 152.50.

Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

03 Aug 2026, 12:45

USD/JPY returns to the 155 support area

USD/JPY has seen another round of intervention, pushing the pair down to 156.70 after climbing to nearly 164.

The latest move has pushed the exchange rate back to a familiar area around 155. That was the level last tested, but not broken, during the previous round of intervention in April, and that remains the case after the latest intervention.

The 155 level has held before

The 155 level was tested several times during the spring and held firm. It was one reason the previous round of intervention failed to generate meaningful follow-through, ultimately allowing USD/JPY to resume its upward trend.

USD/JPY looks technically oversold

At this point, USD/JPY is technically oversold, with the relative strength index below 30 and the exchange rate trading below its lower Bollinger Band.

This is not a purely technical situation, and traditional technical analysis may not fully apply. Even so, assuming there is no further intervention, the currency pair could be due for a rebound.

USD/JPY daily chart

Source: TradingView, 3 August 2026

A break below 155 could expose 152.50

If the exchange rate breaks below 155, there is scope for it to fall further, potentially finding support around 152.50.

However, if support at 155 holds and USD/JPY fails to break below that level, the pair could climb back towards 160, retracing much of the losses seen during the latest round of intervention.

USD/JPY breakout puts 1986 levels back in focus

USD/JPY has broken above the July 2024 highs and is now approaching 164.50, putting the pair at levels last seen in late 1986. Weekly momentum still looks constructive, but the deeper the breakout extends, the greater the risk that Japanese authorities sharpen their intervention stance.