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  1. News and analysis›
  2. USD/JPY reaches inflexion point as critical suppor…

USD/JPY reaches inflexion point as critical support breaks

USD/JPY has fallen below a major support level as markets increase expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes.

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Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

07 Sept 2026, 02:30

USD/JPY has fallen below technical support at ¥155 as markets increase bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on 18 September. Markets are currently pricing in two rate hikes by January 2027, which would take the overnight interest rate to 1.5%.

This is the first time USD/JPY has traded below ¥155 since February 2026, despite multiple attempts to break support since then. A close below ¥155, with follow-through, could suggest that USD/JPY has further to decline and may result in a test of support at ¥152.25.

The one factor working against a further move lower in the short term is that USD/JPY is now oversold, trading below its lower Bollinger Band, with the relative strength index (RSI) below 30. This suggests the pair may be due for either a rebound or a period of sideways consolidation. A rebound could see USD/JPY test its 20-day moving average.

USD/JPY daily, February 2026 – present

Source: TradingView, 7 September 2026

However, a close below support at ¥155 with follow-through would turn that former support level into resistance, which could be difficult for USD/JPY to move back above given how strong the level had previously been. The move lower may therefore signal a longer-lasting shift in trend, putting USD/JPY at a potential inflexion point.

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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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