US jobs data could decide whether the dollar has found a floor
Job openings, ADP payrolls and non-farm payrolls may show whether the dollar rebound can hold, or whether gold and Bitcoin can recover from annual lows.
Market Analyst
US labour-market data key to dollar recovery
This week brings a run of important US labour-market releases: the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Challenger job-cuts report, ADP private payrolls and the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls report. The official jobs report is due on Thursday, a day earlier than usual because US markets are closed for Independence Day on Friday.
In recent months, US labour data has regained momentum and become one of the main arguments for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive bias, helping the dollar regain traction.
US Dollar Index and JOLTS job openings, monthly
Sources: TradingView, Luis Ruiz
Strong jobs momentum: hiring offsets AI-linked layoffs
If the labour market shows renewed strength, the case for rates staying higher for longer would gain credibility and the recent dollar rebound could consolidate.
Consensus expectations point to 113,000 jobs being added in the ADP report and 110,000 positions in the official jobs report. Job openings could moderate after the previous month's strong increase, while the Challenger report is expected to remain below 100,000 job cuts.
S&P 500, Challenger job cuts and unemployment rate, monthly
Sources: TradingView, Luis Ruiz
Dollar could build a floor if the labour recovery holds
A firm data run would support the dollar's recent technical improvement, strengthening the idea that a medium-term floor may be forming rather than a short-lived relief bounce.
The key question is whether vacancies cool in an orderly way while hiring remains resilient. That combination would point to a labour market that is slowing, but not weakening enough to force a rapid shift in Fed expectations.
US labour-market data calendar
Sources: Trading Economics, Luis Ruiz
Gold and Bitcoin need a disappointment
The picture would change materially if the data disappoints. A Challenger report above 100,000 job cuts, alongside ADP and non-farm payrolls closer to 50,000, would cool optimism over the US economy, soften rate expectations and challenge the dollar recovery.
In that scenario, the main beneficiaries could be the assets that have suffered most from a stronger dollar and higher-rate narrative. Bitcoin and gold, whose correlation has moved back to elevated levels, could find the catalyst they need to rebound from annual lows.
Gold futures and Bitcoin correlation, daily
Sources: TradingView, Luis Ruiz
The Week Ahead: Nike earnings, ISM manufacturing, US jobs report
Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 29 June.
US jobs week could drive the dollar and bond yields
A heavy run of US labour-market releases this week could decide whether the dollar and Treasury yields extend their recent strength. JOLTS, ADP, Challenger layoffs and Friday's non-farm payrolls all have the potential to shift expectations around economic resilience and the Fed path.
ADP, Challenger and NFP could stir markets as US jobs data takes centre stage
Three US labour-market releases are due over the next few sessions, and each has the potential to move the dollar, equities and rate expectations. With JOLTS and employment ISM data already softening, traders will be watching ADP, Challenger and non-farm payrolls to see whether the labour backdrop is stabilising or slipping further.