The Week Ahead: US ISM services, Fed minutes, PepsiCo earnings

Published: Friday, 2 October 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

It looks set to be a relatively quiet week for economic data and earnings before earnings season gathers pace the following week. Before that though, PepsiCo’s results will offer an early preview, while the ISM services reading for September should kickstart the week with a broader check-up on the health of the US economy.

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting will also be a focal point. Following the central bank’s rate increase, investors will be looking for clues about how broadly the committee supported the decision, and what policymakers’ comments reveal about where they see interest rates heading.

US ISM services

Monday 5 October

The ISM services index is expected to rise to 55.7 from 55.4. Analysts will also watch its prices paid component closely, particularly after the manufacturing survey’s prices paid index came in at 77.9 on 1 October, well above expectations of 72.3. That stronger-than-expected reading suggests pricing pressures remain elevated in the US economy, and could be reflected in September’s inflation reports, due later this month.

EUR/USD has been particularly sensitive to changes in the US inflation outlook, which shape expectations for the relative paths of European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy. The euro/dollar pair has recently broken below support around $1.1350. A sustained break could open the door to a further decline towards $1.1066.

Should the services survey reinforce the manufacturing report’s indication of mounting US pricing pressures, expectations for tighter Fed policy could weigh further on the euro. A break below $1.1066 could then lead to a further decline towards support near $1.075.

EUR/USD, January 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 1 October 2026

Federal Reserve minutes

Wednesday 7 October

The Fed minutes should offer a closer look at September’s rate decision and the factors that persuaded officials it was time to raise rates. They may also reveal which measures policymakers are watching to assess the inflation outlook. Markets will look for whether officials broadly support further rate hikes, or whether meaningful divisions remain within the committee.

The minutes could also influence spot gold, which has become particularly sensitive to interest-rate changes and monetary-policy expectations. Gold has stalled around $4,175 per ounce following a sharp decline from an August peak of around $4,700. The metal is now finding support in a region where prices previously consolidated during June and July.

A sustained break below $4,175 could open the way towards a slide to $4,000. Conversely, a dovish interpretation of the Fed minutes may help gold defend the level near $4,175 and potentially rebound towards $4,285 or higher.

Gold, September 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 1 October 2026

PepsiCo Q3 earnings

Thursday 8 October

The Nasdaq-listed food and beverage company is expected to report fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.30 a share, broadly unchanged from a year earlier. Revenue is forecast to rise by 4.3% to $25bn. For the fourth quarter, analysts expect earnings per share to grow by 7.6% to $2.43, with revenue forecast to rise 3.3% to $30.3bn.

The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of approximately 4% in either direction. Positioning appears bearish, potentially leaving room for a rebound if results ease investors’ concerns and downside hedges unwind. Options positioning points to significant resistance around $140 and support near $125, just below where the share price sits ahead of the US open on Friday 2 October.

The technical picture highlights similar levels. PepsiCo recently broke below support around $128, leaving the stock vulnerable to further declines and highlighting this earnings report’s importance. The next potential technical support level is near $124, broadly aligning with the $125 area highlighted by options positioning.

If the stock holds above $125 and rises back above $128.50, it could rebound towards $134 to $135. PepsiCo shares also appear oversold, with prices trading near the lower Bollinger Band® and the relative strength index below 30. These oversold conditions may support a relief rally, although they don’t confirm that a reversal is underway.

PepsiCo earnings, July 2018 – present

Source: TradingView, 1 October 2026

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 5 October
• Australia: S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (September)
• Eurozone: HCOB services PMI (September), producer price index (August)
• US: S&P Global services PMI (September), ISM services PMI (September)
• Results: No major announcements

Tuesday 6 October
• Germany: Factory orders (August)
• Eurozone: Retail sales (August)
• UK: S&P Global construction PMI (September)
• US: ADP employment change (4-week average)
• Results: Apogee (Q2), AXIL (Q1), Constellation Brands (Q2), Lamb Weston (Q1), Neogen (Q1), Penguin (Q4), RPM (Q1), Saratoga Investment (Q2), Worthington Steel (Q1)

Wednesday 7 October
• Germany: Industrial production (August)
• US: Federal Open Market Committee minutes
• Results: Applied Digital (Q1), Leifras (Q2), Levi Strauss (Q3), Netcall (FY), Resources Connection (Q1), Richardson Electronics (Q1)

Thursday 8 October
• Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting
• Germany: Trade balance (August)
• Japan: Current account (August)
• US: Initial jobless claims (weekly)
• Results: AngioDynamics (Q1), Byrna (Q3), Next 15 (HY), Oil-Dri (Q4), PepsiCo (Q3), Tesco (HY), Tilray (Q1)

Friday 9 October
• Canada: Unemployment rate (September)
• US: Michigan consumer sentiment index (October)
• Results: Delta (Q3), New Horizon Aircraft (Q1)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.