The EUR/USD may be close to breaking out
EUR/USD is trading above its 200-day moving average and approaching resistance near $1.1660, with a breakout potentially opening the way for further gains.
Michael J Kramer
Founder, Mott Capital Management
19 Aug 2026, 14:10
EUR/USD is approaching a key resistance zone that could extend its recent rally if the pair manages to break higher. The exchange rate is currently trading above its 200-day moving average, which could prove significant and may point to further euro strength if EUR/USD clears resistance around $1.1660. A confirmed breakout could open the way for a move towards the $1.1790 to $1.1820 range.
EUR/USD price chart, December 2025 – present
Source: TradingView, 19 August 2026
However, EUR/USD is also approaching overbought territory, suggesting that the rally could pause before extending further. The relative strength index is currently around 70, while the pair is closing in on the upper Bollinger Band near $1.1660. This means that any further gains may increase the risk of a pullback, either to retest the breakout level or to enter a period of sideways consolidation.
EUR/USD RSI and Bollinger Band chart, November 2025 – present
Source: TradingView, 19 August 2026
If the breakout attempt fails and EUR/USD falls back below $1.1600, the risk of a deeper pullback would increase. In that scenario, the pair could test support near the bottom of its previous consolidation range around $1.1520. A break below that level would point to a more severe decline, potentially back towards $1.1370. For now, however, the bulls appear to be taking control.
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