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Silver's next big move may be lower

Silver has continued to trade sideways as implied and realised volatility cool. A break below $54 could open the door to a move towards $49.50, while reclaiming $60 would be needed to revive upside momentum.

Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

29 Jul 2026, 14:10

Silver volatility starts to cool

Silver prices have continued to trade sideways over the past several weeks. At this point, we are also seeing implied volatility, as measured by the CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV), begin to decline again.

This is likely because realised volatility, measured over the past 21 days, has also fallen. This suggests that silver's implied volatility is likely to continue to decline.

Silver volatility, July 2025 – present

Silver's next big move may be lower - Silver volatility starts to cool

Source: TradingView, 29 July 2026

Lower implied volatility could weigh on prices

Silver prices have largely risen alongside implied volatility, reflecting increased risk-taking and speculative activity in the options market.

As implied volatility falls, silver prices may continue to drift lower over time.

Silver and implied volatility, September 2024 – present

Silver's next big move may be lower - Lower implied volatility could weigh on prices

Source: TradingView, 29 July 2026

Descending triangle remains in play

Currently, silver remains at an important inflexion point around the $57-$58 region. While it has not yet broken below support, the descending triangle pattern continues to develop.

In addition, silver attempted to break above the downtrend but failed to hold the move. It has also fallen back below the 10-day exponential moving average after failing at that level late last week.

Silver daily chart, August 2025 – present

Silver's next big move may be lower - Descending triangle remains in play

Source: TradingView, 29 July 2026

Support at $54 is critical

If silver breaks below the $54 support level, the next major area of support is around $49.50. Conversely, if it can reclaim the $60 level, there is room for a move towards $67-$68.

However, given the current market backdrop of rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and higher real yields, that upside potential appears somewhat limited.

Silver may still be heading much lower

Silver has broken below key support around $58.50, reinforcing a bearish technical setup as momentum weakens and the US dollar remains an important headwind.

Gold faces critical breakout test

Gold is retesting its downtrend near $4,130 after months of consolidation. A breakout could revive upside momentum, but support around $4,000 and dollar-driven headwinds remain critical.

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