DAX stabilises as AI optimism faces a tougher test

The DAX is battling to hold the 25,000-point mark heading into the weekend. Investors are finding some renewed hope that conditions in energy and bond markets may at least be stabilising. Brent crude remains at around $106 a barrel, while government bond yields may have reached a temporary peak. However, it is still far too early to speak of any genuine relief.

Profit-taking continued on Wall Street and across Asian equity markets. Scepticism is growing, particularly in the technology sector. Cracks are increasingly appearing in the AI growth story following OpenAI’s decision to lower its revenue forecasts. This is bringing a question back into focus that was largely overlooked during the rally: when will the enormous investments in data centres and AI infrastructure actually begin to pay off?

Investors are increasingly distinguishing between the technological potential of artificial intelligence and its commercial profitability. This does not necessarily mean that the AI boom is over, but the era of almost unlimited investor optimism may be drawing to a close. The risk of disappointment is therefore growing, particularly among highly valued semiconductor companies and hyperscalers.

Fresh catalysts could come today from Delta Air Lines’ quarterly results and the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment survey. However, energy prices and bond yields remain the decisive factors. Stabilisation alone will not be enough to trigger a new equity rally, but it could at least help contain selling pressure.

From a technical perspective, the DAX is expected to trade within a range of 24,900 to 25,200 points heading into the weekend.