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Is a relief rally on the way for stocks?

To offer some solace in harsh times, for the newer and younger investors out there — ongoing confusion could actually present an opportunity. If we take a step back, stocks are being more fairly valued than they have been in years, especially in the US markets.

This article was originally written by MyWallSt. Read more insights from the MyWallSt team here.

What’s a relief rally?

A relief rally is the term used when stocks quickly rebound following an overreaction to negative market events. According to Callie Cox, an investment analyst from eToro, “since 1990, when fear and uncertainty has risen this high, the S&P 500 has averaged 18% returns in the following 12 months.”

Earnings are key, guidance is key, and profitability is important right now. Solid business fundamentals are a must, as investors rotate out of speculative asset classes. But there are always opportunities.

Are stocks cheap or expensive right now?

Let’s look at a metric that has long been a determinant investors use to value stocks, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Over the course of the last century, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has had a mean value of roughly 16. Although we’re still considerably above that level now, it currently stands at about 24, having been slashed considerably from February 2021 peaks in the mid-30s.

Many value investors wouldn’t give a second glance to a company with a P/E a dash over 20, but now there are several high-flying names shuffling around that range or slightly higher. Not just mature businesses either, but the well-known names that are still growing — players like Shopify [SHOP], Meta [FB], PayPal [PYPL], TakeTwo [TTWO], Alphabet [GOOGL] and Amazon [AMZN], for example.

Is now a bad time to invest?

Understandably, many investors are stand-offish when it comes to loading any more money into the market — but there’s a solution that can help long-term investors. Dollar-cost averaging and buying strong companies — those with a competitive advantage, an innovative roadmap, stable or growing earnings, and with the cash available to navigate short-term headwinds.

If your outlook is 10 years or longer, this downward cycle will likely be a blip in the grand scheme of things, and you’ll be thanking yourself for edging in piece by piece when you’re looking to buy or upgrade a home, or achieve early retirement in the coming years.

So, in times like these, as repetitive as it is, it’s important to remember Warren Buffett’s popular age-old quotes:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”

“Time in the market beats timing the market”

The same old mantras, I know. But, they’re cemented in long-term investors’ heads for good reason. Buffett was certainly on to something, and maybe I’ll be wrong on this, but it might not be a huge surprise to see Berkshire Hathaway loosen its purse strings on the $150bn it has had sitting in cash for the past several years over the coming months either.

 

MyWallSt gives you access to over 100 stock picks, as well as providing free analysis, multiple podcasts, customised market updates straight to your phone, and much more. Sign up for free today

Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.

CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinion on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

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