The New Space Race: AST SpaceMobile vs Rocket Lab

Are we in the midst of a new space race? 

Once the purview of government agencies and large legacy companies, the space sector has seen an influx of smaller, more dynamic players in recent years, offering everything from rockets for launches to vast satellite networks for telecommunications. 

Activity in the sector is likely to be supercharged by the Trump administration’s stated goal of ensuring “American space superiority”, which includes “growing a vibrant commercial space economy through the power of American free enterprise”, according to a December 2025 executive order. The US government plans to attract at least $50bn in additional investment by 2028 to further boost activity in the market. 

With the announcement of key US Space Development Agency (SDA) contracts and an ongoing battle between commercial satellite networks, 2026 is looking to be a formative year for space firms both large and small. Ahead of upcoming earnings, OPTO takes a look at two of the more promising newcomers: AST SpaceMobile [ASTS] and Rocket Lab [RKLB].

AST SpaceMobile: Increasing Coverage

Founded in 2017, Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile designs and operates a space-based broadband network, providing 4G and 5G coverage directly to cell phones via its BlueBird satellites in areas not serviced by terrestrial cell towers. Like Elon Musk’s Starlink, AST operates a low earth orbit (LEO) constellation, but its arrays are much larger and fewer in number. At 2,400 square feet, its latest launch, the BlueBird 6, is the largest LEO commercial communications array, and the firm plans to launch 45–60 satellites by year-end — including the next-gen BlueBird 7 in late February. 

While the company’s mission targets underserved consumers and telecommunications markets, it has seen significant growth from government contracts in recent months. The company kicked off the year by announcing it had been awarded a prime contract position on the Missile Defense Agency Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense. ASTS stock jumped 8% on the news. Then, on February 23, it announced it had been awarded a $30m contract from the SDA for the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program. Under the contract, AST will use its satellite constellation to provide tactical communications between government end devices. 

In its Q3 2025 earnings report, released on November 11, 2025, the company emphasized $1bn in aggregate contracted revenue, including through agreements with Saudi Arabian telecoms provider stc [7010:SR] and Verizon [VZ]. AST satellites are providing intermittent service in the continental US, with plans to roll out service in Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the UK in early 2026. GAAP revenue of $14.7m was largely driven by US government contract milestones. 

As of Q3 the company had $3.2bn in cash and cash equivalents, and forecasts revenue of $50m–75m for the second half of 2025. In early February AST priced $1bn-worth of convertible senior notes due in 2036 and announced plans to repurchase $300m of convertible senior notes due in 2032, helping to raise funds for its ongoing expansion plans. 

Closing at $85.82 on February 24, ASTS stock is up 18.16% in the year to date and up an astronomical 199.65% in the past 12 months. 

AST SpaceMobile is expected to hold its Q4 earnings call on March 2. 

Rocket Lab: The Sky’s the Limit

Founded in 2006 by Peter Beck — a recent guest on OPTO’s Foresight podcast — Rocket Lab offers space launches via its Electron orbital launch vehicle, as well as the design and manufacture of satellite systems and components. This latter segment, Space Systems, provides the bulk of its revenue. It is also developing the Neutron rocket for medium-lift missions. 

Rocket Lab is the second-most-used US launch provider, though it is a distant second, with just 21 launches in 2025 compared to SpaceX’s 165. It is also benefiting from government contracts, including an $816m contract with the US SDA to build 18 satellites for a missile defense system. 

The firm started 2026 with the wrong kind of bang. Its Neutron rocket’s Stage 1 tank ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure trial, potentially delaying one test launch and one paid launch scheduled for the rocket in 2026. However, management stressed that such testing failures were not uncommon, and the firm’s busy Electron launch schedule has continued unabated, deploying a satellite for Open Cosmos and an earth-imaging satellite for South Korea’s KAIST from its New Zealand launch site in January. 

Rocket Lab reached a record $155m in revenue in Q3 2025, announced in November, up 48% year-over-year and backed by a record GAAP gross margin of 37%. Record backlog included significant manufacturing deals and 49 scheduled Electron launches. 

RKLB stock soared over 2025, putting it up 197.11% in the past 12 months. However, concerns over the Neutron launch schedule have trimmed gains, leaving it up a marginal 0.3% in the year to date.

The company has guided revenue of $170m–180m for Q4 2025, with a GAAP gross margin of 37–39%. Rocket Lab reports Q4 earnings on February 26.

Comparing Fundamentals

Which of the two stocks is more compelling to investors? Let’s look at their fundamentals.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Conclusion: Investment Cases for ASTS Stock and RKLB Stock

ASTS stock has outperformed the wider telecoms sector in recent months, with its government contracts and launch schedule pushing its price to record highs. It remains unprofitable and is burning through cash, but share buybacks suggest proactive balance sheet management, and growth forecasts are impressive, with the company in the running to reach 3 billion potential users. 

Not everyone is impressed, however. For example, Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello pumped the brakes in a January 2026 note seen by Seeking Alpha. Pointing out that AST still operates at a loss and lacks a single commercial retail customer, Coello added that delays in launching the company’s large satellites have made it hard to catch up with sector leader Starlink. His $45.60 price target, backed by a ‘sell’ rating, implies a 46.87% decrease from the February 24 close. 

Rocket Lab is expected to beat Wall Street expectations in its Q4 report, with revenue in excess of $178.2m and notable EPS growth. 2026 is likely to be pivotal for the company, given its recent SDA contract and scheduled Neutron launches. However, delays would weigh on investor sentiment, and its valuation may be excessive for a firm that has yet to reach profitability. In January, KeyBanc Capital Markets lowered its rating for RKLB from ‘sector weight’ to ‘overweight’, arguing that the company’s near-term growth catalysts have been realized. However, KeyBanc continues to view RKLB as “one of the highest quality companies within the Space sector,” while additional large contracts could justify a more bullish stance on the stock.

Both companies face pressure from competitors. Beyond SpaceX, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is a major contender in both the launch segment and in the satellite segment. On January 21, the firm announced its TeraWave satellite internet network for enterprise, data center and government customers, with the goal of deploying 5,408 satellites by Q4 2027. Amazon’s [AMZN] Leo satellite service, meanwhile, has launched 180 satellites since last April. 

With the US government seemingly favoring smaller, dynamic defense and space newcomers over legacy players, firms such as AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab look poised to capture future government contracts. Nevertheless, continued unprofitability and volatility driven by high-risk, high-reward launches, as well as increased competition in the sector, could dampen these companies’ long-term prospects.