LatAm Tech Titans: NU and MELI Earnings Preview

Latin America is a vast and fragmented market where many US tech firms have historically struggled to scale profitably. 

While companies like Meta [META] and Amazon [AMZN] have established a presence, they often face hurdles including regulation, fragmented payments, logistics and currency volatility. 

Another key hurdle is lower purchasing power. Latin America generally has lower average incomes compared with the US or Europe, which can limit discretionary spending on digital services and subscription-based products. This means tech firms must often adapt pricing, offer freemium models, or subsidize services to attract and retain customers, adding complexity and pressure on margins.

Local players such as Nubank [NU] and MercadoLibre [MELI] have frequently outperformed their US-based peers by tailoring products to the region’s unique conditions.

Ahead of their respective earnings calls, OPTO unpacks the recent performance and future prospects of the two stocks.

Nu: Good Momentum, Clear Runway

Nu Holdings is scheduled to report Q4 earnings on February 25. 

Nu operates the Nubank digital banking platform and provides mobile-first financial services across Latin America, including fee-free accounts, credit cards, lending, payments and investments. Founded in 2013, it targets underbanked consumers in the region with low-cost, app-based products. 

Its access to Latin American markets gives it a sizeable growth runway. It already serves more than 60% of Brazil’s adult population and has expanded to around 13 million customers in Mexico and 4 million in Colombia. 

Investment firm Susquehanna sees a strong setup for 2026 as Nubank expands beyond Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. In January, the company received conditional US regulatory approval, advancing plans to enter the American market.

Growth remains strong: revenue jumped 42% year-over-year in Q3 to $4.2bn, supported by rising smartphone penetration and faster internet access. 

Analysts expect quarterly EPS of $0.18 on revenue of $4.55bn in Q4, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and KeyCorp all rating the stock ‘overweight’ or ‘buy’.

Wall Street expects revenue to rise sharply through 2028. Nu’s branch-free model keeps costs low, lifting profitability, with net margins reaching 18.8% and unit economics that continue to improve.

NU stock is up a solid 22.77% over the past 12 months, and a very respectable 49.51% since its December 2021 IPO.

MercadoLibre: Can High Stakes Earnings Reverse Decline?

MercadoLibre is scheduled to report its Q4 2025 results on February 24. 

Founded in 1999 by Marcos Galperin in Argentina, MercadoLibre started as an online marketplace modeled on eBay [EBAY], quickly expanding across Latin America. Over time, it added fintech services through Mercado Pago, logistics solutions via Mercado Envios and digital credit products, becoming the region’s leading e-commerce and payments ecosystem. 

Today, the company dominates Latin American online retail, processing billions in transactions annually, and continues growing by integrating commerce, fintech and logistics across multiple countries.

This upcoming earnings report is being closely watched, as it follows a Q3 earnings miss that pressured the stock despite strong top-line revenue growth. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo Finance currently project EPS for Q4 to be approximately $11.44, with consensus revenue estimates around $8.47bn. While 2025 has seen significant revenue growth, market attention remains fixed on profitability margins, which were under pressure in Q3.

Several key themes are expected to shape investor focus ahead of the Q4 results. In logistics and fulfillment, investors will look for further improvements in shipping efficiency, building on an 8% sequential reduction in unit shipping costs in Brazil in Q3, particularly as new warehouse capacity in Brazil and Mexico comes online. 

In fintech, Mercado Pago has seen its credit portfolio grow explosively, rising 83% year-over-year in Q3, and the market will be assessing both profitability and asset quality amid ongoing economic challenges in Argentina. Advertising has also been a high-growth segment, with revenue rising 63% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis in Q3, driven by partnerships and accelerating display and video revenue.

Margin pressure is another area of focus, as strategic investments in artificial intelligence and logistics are expected to continue, potentially keeping short-term operating margins tighter than anticipated. Context for these expectations comes from Q3 2025, when reported EPS of $8.32 fell short of the $9.12–9.30 forecast due to rising expenses and foreign exchange issues, though net revenue still grew 39% year-over-year to $7.41bn — the 27th consecutive quarter exceeding 30% growth.

MELI stock is down 5.31% over the past 12 months. Investors will be hoping that a decent Q4 report will reverse this decline. 

Comparing Fundamentals

Is one or the other of the two stocks more compelling to investors? Let’s start with a look at their fundamentals.

Source: Yahoo Finance

MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings both serve Latin America but differ in focus and valuation. As of early 2026, MELI has a market cap of about $100.80bn with a forward P/E around 29.59, reflecting mixed sentiment after growth and recent earnings challenges. NU’s market cap is roughly $81.50bn, with stronger recent performance and a forward P/E near 20.96, supported by high profitability metrics and strong analyst ratings. In short, MELI trades at a higher multiple, while NU shows stronger short‑term return momentum.

Conclusion: Investment Cases for NU Stock and MELI Stock

The bull case for MercadoLibre rests on its dominant position in Latin American e‑commerce and fintech, with diversified revenue streams spanning marketplace fees, payments, logistics and credit services. Long‑term growth remains attractive given the region’s underpenetrated online commerce and digital financial services. Investors also highlight its established ecosystem and recurring engagement across multiple product lines. 

However, the bear case centers on profitability and competitive pressure; recent earnings have shown margin compression, and rivals like Amazon and Nu are intensifying competition in both e‑commerce and digital finance. Economic and currency volatility in core markets adds risk, and the valuation remains high relative to growth.

Nu Holdings’ bull case emphasizes strong recent returns, high profitability and improving unit economics from its digital banking model. Positive analyst sentiment and growth projections support continued momentum as it expands services beyond core markets.

The bear case focuses on macro risk in Latin America, regulatory challenges and the need to sustain disciplined growth without diluting credit quality. Despite robust returns, the stock still trades at a premium that could be pressured if growth slows.