IONQ Stock Earnings Preview: Is Quantum Leader IonQ at a Tipping Point?

It’s hard to know where we are with quantum.

Throughout 2025, there was a feeling that the technology was on the cusp of something. There was a lot of hype around quantum stocks: a number of pure-play quantum firms soared over the course of the year, among them Rigetti Computing [RGTI], D-Wave Quantum [QBTS] and IonQ [IONQ]. Alongside this, various tech companies intensified their quantum efforts, most notably Alphabet’s [GOOGL] Google. 

Since then, however, prominent voices have cautioned that quantum is still a long way from being able to do anything useful.

For instance, in its Big Ideas report published at the start of January, ARK Invest noted that, “Despite spending billions in research and development (R&D), Google doubled qubits only once in more than four years. Even if its performance and costs were to improve markedly… quantum computing would not be useful for cryptographic decryption until the 2040s.”

Despite this, quantum continues to garner significant interest, as well as significant contracts.

Investors will be paying close attention to the earnings reports of quantum stocks, hoping to glean some sense of where the sector is headed — and how long it will take to get there.

Ahead of IonQ’s earnings call on February 25, OPTO unpacks the firm’s narrative and identifies some key metrics to monitor.

Trajectory to Date

Headquartered in College Park, Maryland, IonQ went public in October 2021 via a SPAC merger, positioning itself as one of the first pure-play quantum computing stocks. Early trading was driven more by thematic enthusiasm than fundamentals, and the stock fell sharply through 2022 as rising interest rates, risk-off sentiment and limited revenues weighed on pre-commercial tech names.

From 2023 onward, IonQ shares rebounded as investor interest returned to frontier technologies, helped by steady revenue growth, government and enterprise contracts, and partnerships with major cloud platforms. The company also used equity to fund acquisitions and expand its trapped-ion roadmap, reinforcing its long-term narrative. 

Notwithstanding all this, the stock has remained highly volatile, with sharp rallies often followed by deep pullbacks.

Today, IonQ is still loss-making and trades largely on expectations around quantum computing’s eventual commercialization rather than near-term earnings. In this sense the company’s share price continues to act as a proxy for sentiment toward quantum technology as a whole.

New Contracts and Acquisitions

But it’s not a question of smoke and mirrors: the firm has earned the trust of some major players.

To take a recent example, on February 23 IonQ announced it had been awarded a contract for the Missile Defense Agency’s Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense initiative, related to the Golden Dome.

It did not specify how big the contract was, but noted the program’s total ceiling is $151bn.

The firm is also making some compelling M&A moves. 

In June 2025 IonQ announced its intention to buy Oxford Ionics, which specializes in the production of quantum chips.

On January 28, the company announced the completion of its acquisition of Skyloom Global, a US-based developer of lightwave-optics technology for communications.

“Completing the Skyloom acquisition is another important step as we build the foundation for scalable quantum networking,” said Niccolo de Masi, IonQ’s Chairman and CEO. “Skyloom brings proven optical and communications expertise to complete our vision for distributed quantum entanglement and ultra-secure connectivity.”

On the same day, IonQ announced its pending acquisition of Seed Innovations. Based out of Colorado, Seed “has established itself as a provider of full-lifecycle software development, legacy system upgrades and R&D for the Department of War, the Intelligence Community and the commercial sector”, according to the press release. 

IonQ has also said it is going to buy SkyWater Technology [SKYT], a US semiconductor foundry that, among other things, manufactures D-Wave’s quantum chips.

How do analysts feel about all this? Let’s see what they’re saying ahead of IonQ’s earnings, scheduled for February 25.

Earnings Preview

IonQ delivered a standout quarter last time out, beating both revenue and EPS expectations. Revenue reached $39.87m, up 222% year-over-year, comfortably ahead of consensus and marking one of the company’s strongest prints to date. 

Momentum is expected to continue: the market is pricing in a further 245% year-over-year revenue increase this quarter, a sharp acceleration from the 91.8% growth posted in the comparable period last year. Notably, analysts have largely held their forecasts steady over the past month, implying confidence that IonQ can maintain execution. 

That said, sentiment has weakened. IONQ shares are down nearly 32% over the past three months following fresh short-seller claims. On February 4, Wolfpack Research alleged IonQ lost funding tied to Pentagon contracts that accounted for up to 86% of revenue between 2022 and 2024. IonQ has denied the allegations, but this marks the third short report in two years. Investors will be following this story closely, and hoping for more clarity.

Despite the noise, bullish analysts remain vocal. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Troy Jensen reiterated a ‘buy’ and a $70 target, citing potential for over 150% revenue growth, largely acquisition-driven, and forecasting $185m of revenue in 2026, excluding the SkyWater Technology deal. Rosenblatt Securities analyst John McPeake also sees the selloff as an opportunity, maintaining a $100 target and pointing to IonQ’s progress against its quantum roadmap, including a 256-physical-qubit system by the end of 2026 and supply-chain expansion via Oxford Ionics.

Quantum Uncertainty: IONQ vs RGTI vs QBTS

Lastly, this is how IonQ compares to two peers in the space: Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum.

All three are pure-play quantum hardware companies that went public via SPACs and remain in emerging-growth territory, where technology and capital access outweigh near-term profits. IonQ leads in brand recognition, revenue scale and strategic partnerships, with trapped-ion systems accessible through major cloud platforms. Its acquisitions reinforce its roadmap, making it relatively less speculative than smaller peers.

Rigetti focuses on superconducting qubits and modular processor design, emphasizing an in-house foundry strategy and cloud services. However, it lags in revenue scale, and its stock has experienced higher volatility, reflecting execution risks and ongoing funding needs.

D-Wave is differentiated by its quantum annealing systems, suited for optimization problems and steady commercial engagements. Its revenue is smaller than IonQ’s, but its established product line and cash reserves offer a less speculative, more stable risk profile, albeit with narrower upside potential.

Source: Stockanalysis.com

From an investment perspective, IonQ offers the broadest exposure to scaling quantum hardware, Rigetti presents a higher-risk superconducting play and D-Wave provides a more specialized, commercially proven albeit niche-focused approach.

Conclusion

IonQ is indeed at a potential inflection point, with strong revenue growth, major partnerships and ambitious qubit milestones suggestive of real progress toward commercial quantum computing. However, the stock remains highly speculative, trading on future promise rather than current profitability, with valuation and sector risks still elevated. Its trajectory will depend on execution and adoption; success could be transformative, but setbacks would likely trigger sharp volatility.