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USD rallies into Japan data + ADP payrolls, stocks active on mergers

USD rallies into Japan data + ADP payrolls, stocks active on mergers

US indices declined moderately while USD rallied on continuing speculation that the Fed could potentially raise interest rates at its September meeting. More hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer who indicated he expects a program of rate hikes, not one and done plus stronger than expected consumer confidence, a sign of a strong economy kept the pot boiling. The big focus in US trading today was on stocks and sectors. Apple captured a lot of the headlines after the EU ruled Ireland’s tax rate was too low and ordered the country to collect €12B in back taxes. With Ireland planning to appeal the ruling amid questions of whether this decision has trampled on national sovereignty or closed a loophole Apple shares held steady. Mergers and acquisitions also dominated market action in US and Canadian stocks today. Hershey plunges 11.2% after Mondelez soured on the candy company and dropped its takeover bid. Mondelez rose 3.5% on the news as takeover related risks dissipated. Meanwhile Potash and Agrium confirmed they are in discussions for a potential big merger in fertilizers, sending their shares up 12.3% and 6.5% respectively. This news kicked off wider speculation about consolidation in the group sending Mosaic up 8.5% and CF Industries up 3.4%. Canadian banks continued to climb led by a 2.0% gain for the Bank of Nova Scotia on the back of a positive earnings report. US airlines also picked up after United Airlines rallied 8.0% after hiring a key executive away from competitor American Airlines. Crude oil tumbled Tuesday with WTI falling 1.1% and Brent falling 1.7%. This week’s declines appear to be a correction of last week’s rally. Energy news and rumours have subsided, and Nigerian rebels appear to be more interested in talking. Most importantly, unlike last week when global markets were quiet, oil isn't the only game in town this week, and traders appear to be taking profits out of energy to have on hand for chasing action in stocks, indices, and currencies. Among majors, USD posted its strongest gains against JPY with the Bank of Japan looking like it’s leaning toward going in the opposite direction (more stimulus) potentially as soon as its next meeting. JPY and the Nikkei could be active today with the second round of key Japanese monthly indicators on the way. Economic numbers could give a better idea of the strength of Japan’s economy and how much pressure the Bank of Japan and the Abe government are under to increase stimulus. Tomorrow brings ADP payrolls kicking off three big days for news which also includes manufacturing PMI reports from around the world and Friday’s big nonfarm payrolls report which could confirm or reject thinking toward a September US interest rate increase. Corporate News Potash Corp confirmed reports that it is involved in merger discussions with fertilizer competitor Agrium Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US API crude oil inventories 0.94 mmbbls US consumer confidence 101.1 vs street 97.0 Canada industrial prices 0.2% vs street (0.3%) vs previous 0.6% Canada raw material prices (2.7%) vs street (1.2%) vs previous 1.8% Upcoming significant economic announcements include: (Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore) 9:50 am AEST Japan industrial production street (3.0%) 3:00 pm AEST Japan housing starts street 7.3% 3:00 pm AEST Japan construction orders previous (2.4%) 11:00 am AEST NZ ANZ business confidence previous 16.0 11:00 am AEST NZ ANZ activity outlook previous 31.4 11:45 am AEST China consumer sentiment previous 114.0 7:00 am BST Germany retail sales street 0.3% 8:55 am BST Germany unemployment change street (4K) 8:55 am BST Germany unemployment rate street 6.1% 7:00 am BST UK Nationwide house prices street 4.8% 8:15 am BST FOMC Rosengren, Evans, ECB Praet speak in China 9:00 am BST Norway GDP over quarter street 0.1% 10:00 am BST Greece retail sales previous (8.0%) 10:00 am BST Eurozone unemployment rate street 10.0% 10:00 am BST Eurozone consumer prices street 0.3% 10:00 am BST Eurozone core CPI street 0.9% 8:00 am EDT FOMC Kashkari speaking 8:15 am EDT US ADP Payrolls street 179K 8:30 am EDT Canada June GDP street 1.0% 8:30 am EDT Canada Q2 GDP street (1.5%) vs previous 2.4% 9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 54.0 10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street 2.2% 10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.3 mmbbls 10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.0 mmbbls) CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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