USD falls on weak wage growth, Oilpatch earnings mixed
01:00, 31 juli 2015
· Av CMC Markets
Conflicting data on inflation has USD giving back some of yesterday’s GDP inspired gains. While yesterday’s rising Core PCE inflation was seen as putting more pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, today’s Q2 employment cost index increase of 0.2%, the lowest in decades, has eased pressure on the central bank to make a move. The lower result may be due to the loss of high paying jobs in the oilpatch over the last six months, and it’s uncertain how long it could take to replace those losses with similar paying work.
Trading in energy stocks could be active again today with more results out of the majors. While yesterday’s results showed a clear divergence favouring downstream businesses over upstream production, today’s numbers have been more murky. Exxon Mobil came in short of expectations, refiner Phillips 66 didn’t beat the street as much as one would have thought after yesterday’s report from Valero. On the other hand, Chevron appears to have come in with strong sales and Canada’s Imperial Oil beat the street and raised its dividend.
LinkedIn could also be active today following last night’s results. Although the company beat the street by a wide margin, management indicated much of its forecast growth is expected to come from the Lynda.com acquisition, raising questions about the health of its core underlying business network. Considering that results from Twitter and Facebook earlier this week sent their shares lower, social medial stocks could remain under pressure today.
In currency trading today, CAD is falling again today with the loonie pressured by a combination of another drop in the oil price. Surprisingly to some, a weaker than expected Canadian GDP report has sparked a small rebound for CAD on what looks to be short covering against the news. A weak report had been expected since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates last month.
NZD has also been plunging again after very weak ANZ survey data indicated the economy continues to weaken, keeping pressure on the RBNZ to cut rates even further at future meetings.
Most other majors are up against USD today with SEK and CHF leading the charge. A first half loss reported by the Swiss National Bank has sparked speculation that it may not have as much firepower to intervene in forex markets trying to keep the franc down.
US markets may remain active through the day with Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment due later this morning. It’s the last day of the week and the month, so we could see some traders start to position ahead of next week’s news which includes manufacturing PMI reports, US and Canada employment figures and meetings of the RBA, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
Exxon Mobil $1.00 vs street $1.11
Chevron sales $40.3B vs street $35.6B
Phillips 66 $1.83 vs street $1.80
LinkedIn $0.55 vs street $0.30, raises full year guidance to $2.19 from $1.90 on growth from Lynda.com acquisition
Amgen $2.57 vs street $2.43, raises full year guidance to $9.55-$9.80 from $9.35-$9.65
Electronic Arts $0.15 vs street $0.02, sales $693M vs street $653M, guides next Q to $0.40 below street $0.67
Western Union $0.41 vs street $0.39, raises full year guidance to $1.60-$1.67 from $1.58-$1.62
Imperial Oil $0.52 vs street $0.50, 7.7% dividend increase
TransCanada $0.56 vs street $0.52
Enbridge $0.60 vs street $0.47
Gildan $0.42 vs street $0.44
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Russia interest rate surprise 0.50% cut to 11.00%
Canada May GDP over year 0.5% vs street 0.8%
Canada May GDP over month (0.2%) vs street 0.0%
US Q2 employment cost index 0.2% vs street 0.6%
Japan unemployment rate 3.4% vs street 3.3%
Japan consumer prices 0.4% vs street 0.3%
Japan housing starts 16.3% vs street 3.0%
Japan construction orders 15.4% vs previous (7.4%)
Eurozone unemployment rate 11.1% vs street 11.0%
Eurozone consumer prices 0.2% as expected
Eurozone core CPI 1.0% vs street 0.8%
Germany retail sales 5.1% vs street 4.0%
Norway unemployment rate 3.1% vs street 3.0%
Italy unemployment rate 12.7% vs street 12.3%
Greece retail sales 2.5% vs previous (3.3%)
NZ ANZ activity outlook 19.0 vs previous 23.6
NZ ANZ business confidence (15.3) vs previous (2.3)
Australia producer prices 1.1% vs previous 0.7%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 50.8
10:00 am EDT US UMichigan consumer sentiment street 94.0
10:00 am EDT US UMichigan 1 yr inflation estimate previous 2.8%
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 876
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