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News

US traders return to a big relief rally

CMC Markets

The market situation for US traders returning from the Martin Luther King holiday has improved dramatically since last Friday since the world didn’t end over the weekend. A big relief rally is now underway suggesting that Friday’s panic selloff was a selling climax and with weak hands having been shaken out, the path appears to be clear for a rebound. The big question now is whether early gains can be sustained through the North American day to confirm the turnaround. We now appear to be entering a phase where traders who had been selling on rumour or anticipation of bad news had dominated the discussion toward one of buyers coming in to cover shorts or scoop up bargains on the actual news. Chinese GDP and other reports came in slightly below expectations but not by a lot. GDP for example was 6.8% vs expectations of 6.9%. This suggests an economy that is struggling but not collapsing, indicating the steep declines at the start of the year for mainland markets were overdone. Similarly, a cut this morning to the IMF’s world GDP outlook has been shrugged off as the recent selloff had probably already priced in expectations of an even bigger reduction. Mainland China markets gained about 3.5% on the day sending a wave of relief through world markets that has sent a number of markets around the world up 2.0-2.5% including the Hang Seng, plus, the FTSE, DAX and other major continental indices. Dovish comments from Bank of England Governor Carney indicating that now is not the time for raising interest rates, pretty much ending speculation of a spring UK liftoff, has also helped to support European stocks. Interestingly the oversold pound has lost a cent but is not trading much below yesterday’s low, indicating the recent slide had already priced in speculation that liftoff would be deferred. US markets, which fell less than their overseas counterparts last week, are up a bit less this morning with the Dow and S&P both rising about 1.5%. Earnings season is picking up today so we could see action in a number of individual stocks. Results from Morgan Stanley and Comerica were better than expected. Tiffany put out a profit warning but the reaction to that could be contained to itself as it has already become clear that this year’s selling season was not very good for retailers. Canadian stocks could also be active today with a rally in oil prices that has seen WTI and Brent post 3% gains and take another run at $30.00 building on the positive momentum from yesterday’s merger news for the oilpatch. Potash, however, could struggle on news that it’s suspending its New Brunswick operation. CAD is on the rebound today, rising in line with NOK and MXN which suggests the action so far is mainly oil driven. Speculation and reaction over whether or not the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates tomorrow could also keep the loonie active over the next two days. Corporate News Tiffany & Co holiday same store sales down 5% due to higher US Dollar and lower tourist spending. Fiscal year ending Jan 31 to see a 10% decline in EPS vs prior estimate of a 5010% decline. Year starting Feb 1 expect minimal growth Bank of America $0.28 vs street $0.27 Morgan Stanley $0.43 vs street $0.33 Comerica $0.71 vs street $0.69, 2016 decline in loans to energy sector to be more than offset by growth in loans to other industries Potash Corp to suspend operations at its Picadilly, New Brunswick potash mine Bombardier in ramp up phase toward full production of its CSeries jet program Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: China GDP over quarter 1.6% vs street 1.8% China GDP over year 6.8% vs street 6.9% China retail sales 11.1% vs street 11.3% China industrial production 5.9% vs street 6.0% China fixed assets 10.0% vs street 10.2% China Bloomberg monthly GDP 6.69% vs previous 6.85% International Monetary Fund cuts 2016 world GDP growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6% International Monetary Fund cuts 2017 world GDP growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.8% International Energy Agency global oil supply rose by 2.6 mmbbl/d in 2015, International Energy Agency global oil demand growth rate slowed from 2.1 mmbbl/d in Q3 to 1.0 mmbbl/d in Q4, 2016 demand expected to rise 1.2 mmbbl/d International Energy Agency 2016 first half forecast imbalance supply could exceed demand by 1.5 mmbbl/d on Iran return to market Germany consumer prices 0.3% as expected UK consumer prices 0.2% as expected UK core CPI 1.4% vs street 1.2% UK retail prices 1.2% vs street 1.1% UK producer input prices (10.8%) vs street (11.7%) UK producer output prices (1.2%) as expected UK ONS house prices 7.7% vs previous 7.0% Eurozone consumer prices 0.2% as expected Eurozone core CPI 0.9% as expected Eurozone construction output 2.1% vs previous 1.1% Germany ZEW current 59.1 vs street 53.1 Germany ZEW expectations 10.2 vs street 8.0 Japan machine tool orders (25.7%) vs previous (25.8%) Upcoming significant announcements include: 10:00 am EST US NAHB housing market street 61 CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.


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