USD and indices have stabilized following yesterday’s declines amid a relatively quiet night for news. The Dax
has found some support near the 9,000 level for now but the Dow and NASDAQ remain stuck well short of 17,000 and 4,000 respectively.
USD has also stabilized against paper currencies although it continues to give back ground to gold, which has taken another run at $1,220. AUD and NZD have dropped back the most but this is expected since they rebounded the most yesterday.
European indices are mixed with the DAX, FTSE and CAC all down on the day while the MIB and IBEX are rebounding. A deeper than expected interest rate cut from Poland’s central bank highlights the pressure on the ECB to start stimulating more aggressively with economies across the continent struggling.
Crude oil is trading lower today with WTI down another 1.0% but gasoline and natural gas are getting hit even harder falling 1.5%-2.0%. We could see more trading action across the energy sector today and tomorrow as inventory levels in the US are reported.
USD could be active again off of today’s FOMC minutes, but considering that the last meeting had a statement, member projections, a balance sheet reduction plan and a press conference with Chair Yellen plus a number of FOMC members out speaking since, there is a lot of information out there at the moment so it would take something big to surprise the street at this point.
The main event of the day is Alcoa’s earnings report due after US markets close. Traders may look to these earnings in particular for signs of whether the strong US economy through the summer can translate into strong corporate earnings, and also how much of an impact falling commodity prices and/or the rising USD may have on earnings and guidance this time around. Earnings misses from Yum! and Monsanto do not bode well so far.
Yum! Brands $0.87 vs street $0.89, cut earnings growth forecast to 6-10% from 20%+, China same store sales (14%) yuck!!
Monsanto ($0.27) vs street ($0.24) guides next FY EPS to $5.75 to $6.00 below street $6.03
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Poland interest rate surprise 0.50% cut to 2.00%, a 0.25% cut to 2.25% had been expected.
Canada housing starts 197K vs street 198K
China HSBC service PMI 53.5 vs previous 54.1
UK Halifax house prices 9.6% as expected
Spain industrial output 0.6% vs street 0.9%
Economic reports due later today include:
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street 2.0 mmbbls
2:00 pm EDT US FOMC meeting minutes