US stocks have been unable to follow through on Friday’s rally to new all-time highs for the Dow and S&P. While this may partially due to normal backing and filling, the main reason appears to be a reluctance to get too carried away ahead of tomorrow’s semi-annual testimony to Congress by Fed Chair Yellen.
With the prospects for Fed interest rate hikes to start this summer still on the table, we may see stock markets continue to trend sideways in the near term as the prospects for less of a central bank boost means the bulls can only run so far while strong underlying earnings and reasonable valuations means the bears can only knock indices down so far. This creates an environment that favours swing trading strategies over long-term positions.
Crude oil, meanwhile, appears to be on another downswing with WTI falling back under $50.00. Drill rig activity fell last week but not as fast as traders had been hoping while Libya reopened a pipeline to increase supply. CAD and NOK are falling in tandem with oil prices.
Meanwhile, it appears that traders have recognized that Friday’s short term Greek debt deal extension isn’t the end, it’s the beginning of another period of negotiations that look likely to be acrimonious. EUR has dropped back while gold has stabilized near $1,200. Continental indices are still up slightly but the FTSE
has already started to turn back downward.
There are no major corporate announcements this morning.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Germany IFO business climate 106.8 vs street 107.7
Germany IFO current 111.3 vs street 112.5
Germany IFO expectations 102.5 vs street 103.0
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EST US existing home sales street 4.95M