US payrolls on tap as we head towards 17k
01:00, 03 juli 2014
· Av CMC Markets
So here we are, the day in question has arrived and the market seems determined to drive the Dow higher, as we prepare for a data deluge this afternoon.
Yesterday’s ADP number has raised expectations that this afternoon’s payrolls report will be a similarly positive report.
There are bound to be caveats, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 6.3%, but having the potential to tick higher, particularly if discouraged workers return to the rolls in the hope that the labour market is recovering, but this is likely to be received positively as it means that the Fed will stay easier for longer.
On the flip side it will be US dollar negative, and for any number to be significantly US dollar positive you feel that the number really has to come in circa 250k+.
Weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 312k.
Irrespective of the enthusiasm that markets have with respect to this report we need to be acutely aware that we are heading into a long weekend in the US, and markets are already pricing in a good number.
Given that earnings season starts next week and markets are priced to perfection there is a risk that we could see some pre long weekend nervousness and profit taking start to kick in irrespective of how good or bad this afternoon’s number is.
The Dow Jones is expected to open 20 points higher at 16,996
The S&P500 is expected to open 1.5 points higher at 1 976.12
CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.