79 procent av alla icke-professionella kunder förlorar pengar på CFD-handel hos den här leverantören. Du bör tänka efter om du har råd med den stora risk som finns för att du kommer att förlora dina pengar.

News

US Oil Production – Ray Of Hope

CMC Markets

By Ric Spooner, Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets Australia At the end of the day, cuts in US oil production are far more likely to bring some stability to prices than any agreement between Russia; Saudi or Venezuela. We might just be starting to see some movement on this front. US oil production Last week, US oil production fell to 9.1 million barrels a day. That’s back to where it was in mid-October and down 1.4% from the January high of 9.24m. It’s probably a bit early to call this a trend but it’s worth keeping an eye on Recent estimates are that capital expenditure by major US oil companies this year will be half the levels of 2015. The market has been wrong about capital expenditure and production cuts so far. Improvements in productivity have stopped a big drop in the numbers of oil rigs flowing through to deeper production cuts. However, production is now down 0.5m barrels a day from the peak last April. The really large capex cuts now planned should flow through to deeper production cuts this year Daily US oil production Source: Bloomberg US oil inventories and surplus It’s important to see any US production cuts in context of course. Significant cuts are needed just to stop the rot. Inventories continue to grow. They were up 3.5m to a record 507.6m barrels last week. To make matters worse, we are moving into a period of seasonal weakness in demand between February and May. The International Energy Agency estimates that the global oil production surplus is around 1.9m barrels a day. Demand is expected to grow 1.2m barrels a day this year but Iran will be adding to supply. US production probably needs to fall to at least 8.5m barrels to start stabilizing prices. US oil inventories Source: Bloomberg Market reaction – relief While markets have been wrong about US production cuts so far, they are still expecting them, in fact counting on them starting to come through in coming months. Even though cuts are expected, it’s likely we will see some relief when if we finally begin to see evidence of more meaningful amounts coming off the table. Risk premiums could be reduced, especially in equity markets where oil markets and related bad debt problems have been a significant source of concern.


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Standardiserad riskvarning: CFD-kontrakt är komplexa instrument som innebär stor risk för snabba förluster på grund av hävstången. 79 procent av alla icke-professionella kunder förlorar pengar på CFD-handel hos den här leverantören. Du bör tänka efter om du förstår hur CFD-kontrakt fungerar och om du har råd med den stora risk som finns för att du kommer att förlora dina pengar.