have dropped back overnight, confirming yesterday’s rebound was a dead cat bounce in the wake of last week’s selloff. Nothing has changed on the monetary side since Friday, but today’s US service PMI reports may give another indication of how much pressure the Fed is under to advance its rate hike plans.
Earnings reports continue to flood out although we are now in the phase where the calendar is dominated by a large number of reports from small and mid-cap companies which may impact their individual stocks and sectors but have a lesser impact on the broader markets. Today’s news has been dominated by retailers so far, with Target and Coach potentially attracting the most attention and possibly heading in opposite directions.
Base metals led by copper continue to climb again along with the Hang Seng overnight, indicating attitudes toward China remain positive even through its service PMI came in a bit soft. Crude oil continues to stabilize following last week’s selloff while grains are falling back again today on anticipation of a good crop this year.
In currency markets today, gold is trying to bounce back again but remains well short of the $1,300 round number barrier. USD continues to trend higher on anticipation of a less accommodative Fed going forward. SEK is outperforming on the back of better than expected Swedish service PMI. AUD is steady following last night’s RBA meeting. CAD continues to weaken ahead of trade, PMI and employment figures later in the week. NZD could be active up to and through this evening’s NZ employment report.
Target cuts Q2 guidance to $0.78 from $0.85-$1.00 due to costs from December data breach. US business flat, Canada still soft
Coach $0.59 vs street $0.53
Archer Daniels $0.77 vs street $0.73
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Australia interest rate 2.50% no change as expected
India interest rate 8.00% no change as expected
UK PMI 59.1 vs previous 57.7
Germany PMI 56.7 vs previous 56.6
France PMI 50.4 unchanged
Italy PMI 52.8 vs previous 53.9
Spain PMI 56.2 vs previous 54.8
Sweden PMI 60.1 vs previous 54.6
Eurozone PMI 54.2 vs previous 54.4
Eurozone retail sales 2.4% vs street 1.4%
China HSBC PMI 50.0 vs previous 53.1
Japan PMI 50.4 vs previous 49.0
Australia PMI 49.3 vs previous 47.6
India PMI 52.2 vs previous 54.4
Economic reports due later today include:
9:00 am EDT Brazil PMI previous 51.4
9:45 am EDT US Markit PMI street 60.8
10:00 am EDT US ISM PMI street 56.5
10:00 am EDT US Factory orders street 0.6%
6:45 pm EDT NZ employment change street 4.0% vs previous 3.7%
6:45 pm EDT NZ unemployment rate street 5.8% vs previous 6.0%