From the Trading Strategy Group (TSG) - Today's Markets
01:00, 29 augusti 2013
· Av CMC Markets
We are likely to see a cautious, end of week mood in markets today as investors look forward to a big data week to come. Last night’s news of better than expected US GDP growth and reduced chances of Western military action against Syria have also disrupted the momentum of recent days, especially in currency and commodity markets.
Despite the fact that, the revision in 2nd quarter GDP is in market terms now fairly historical, the lift to 2.5% represents a solid base from which to improve as the impact of higher taxes begins to recede. At the margin, this tilts Fed tapering probabilities towards a relatively early and somewhat larger initial move and this thinking was partly responsible for a stronger $US last night.
News that the UK House of Commons has voted against military action against Syria and reports that the US is finding it difficult to marshal conclusive evidence that the Assad regime was directly responsible for chemical attacks have seen the risk premium in markets like gold and oil wound back. While markets are likely to leave significant Syrian risk premium built into prices for some time, the reduced prospects of an immediate move may see some selling in the gold and energy sector today.
Next week will see a considerable amount of data which may give a clearer insight into both the Fed taper decision as well as the Australian economy. The US employment numbers for August will be front and centre for thinking on the Fed decision. Manufacturing PMI numbers around the world early next week, especially in China will be closely watched by the resource sector. Domestically, building approvals and retail sales for July as well as 2nd quarter GDP numbers will influence thinking on business conditions and corporate profitability in the early part of the new financial year.