European markets are on the rebound today with major indices like the Dax
, CAC, IBEX and others up 1.5%-2.5% while the FTSE is up about 1,0%. The rally has been attributed to speculation that the ECB may be starting its asset purchases soon, but this appears flimsy considering that an October start has been known for some time. More likely, this appears to be some profit taking and bargain hunting ahead of the weekend in a normal trading response to oversold conditions. Seen in isolation today’s rebounds appear nice, but they are modest relative to recent declines so we may be entering a period of consolidation but more work needs to be done by the bulls to put an end to the bigger downtrend.
US indices are also climbing today, following their European counterparts higher in what also appears to be a correction of the selloff of the last few days. Fed speakers appear mixed on what to do about QE as Boston Fed President Rosengren indicating QE3 is still likely to end this month, contradicting yesterday’s call by St. Louis Fed President Bullard to consider delaying the end to QE3. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Yellen didn’t say much of anything about monetary policy or stock market action at a speech this morning.
Overnight earnings reports have been mixed, with Google missing on earnings and SanDisk missing on guidance while Morgan Stanley came in well above expectations. Earnings reports may keep individual shares active particularly with Apple’s report coming up on Monday night
USD continues to ease back along with other defensive havens like JPY and gold as some of the fear that had gripped markets earlier in the week eases for now. Crude oil continues its strong rally up off of $80.00, trading near $83.50. The oil sensitive NOK and CAD are leading gains today along with the rebounding GBP, while EUR and NZD are trading lower against USD.
Overall, today’s action feels like a trading rebound within a larger bear market. The big swing
s from day to day and hour to hour changes indicate there is still a lot of uncertainty out there and not much conviction on either side. This may continue to create opportunities for traders over the next several weeks.
Google $6.35 vs street $6.54, sales $13.17B vs street $13.20B
SanDisk $1.45 vs street $1.34, guides Q4 revenue to $1.80-$1.85B below street $1.88B
Morgan Stanley $0.72 vs street $0.54
General Electric $0.38 vs street $0.37, sales $36.1B vs street $36.8B
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Canada consumer prices vs street 2.0%
Canada core CPI vs street 2.1%
US housing starts vs street 1,008K
Economic reports due later today include:
9:55 am EDT US consumer confidence street 84.0