Gold had a rougher ride today than yesterday after some of the reasons behind the recent rally faded. In particular, a poll showed that support for a November 30 Swiss referendum measure that would force the Swiss National Bank to stop selling gold, repatriate gold it has loaned out and increase gold to 20% of its reserve base may not have as much public support as previously thought. Initial poll reports knocked gold back but it later regained its footing and finished down only moderately.
Of the overnight central bank news, the Bank of England minutes ended up having a bigger impact on trading. The minutes showed a more relatively neutral central bank than last week’s dovish inflation report had suggested, shoring up support for GBP.
The FOMC meeting minutes ended up being a non-event, showing mixed opinions over how long until it starts raising rates and some concern over the impact falling oil prices may have on inflation. US indices
spent the day in consolidation mode after hitting new highs on Tuesday.
Speaking of which, WTI traded up slightly today despite a surprise increase in US inventories with traders more focused on whether OPEC will cut production at its meeting next week. Natural gas took off again with temperatures falling, more early winter storms rolling through and storage numbers due tomorrow.
With the main central bank and earnings news out of the way for this week, focus now turns back to economic reports. There are a number of reports, mostly middle tier, scheduled around the world over the next 24 hours, but the reports with the biggest potential impact are the flash PMI numbers. These reports may give traders their first glimpse into how world economies are doing this month.
In particular, traders may look for signs of whether China and Japan are deteriorating or stabilizing, and if the positive German ZEW report was an isolated event or the first sign of improvement. For the US traders may look for signs its positive momentum is continuing or fading.
Keurig Green Mountain $0.90 vs street $0.76, 15% dividend increase
L Brands $0.44 vs street $0.39
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Bank of England minutes 7-2 in favour of maintaining interest rates, dissenters hawkish, no change from last month
US housing starts 1,009K vs street 1,025K
US building permits 1,080K vs street 1,040K
US crude oil inventories 2.6 mmbbls vs street (1.4 mmbbls)
Swiss gold vote poll 38% Yes, 47% No, 15% Undecided
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:45 am AEDT NZ producer output prices previous (0.5%)
8:45 am AEDT NZ producer input prices previous (1.0%)
12:35 pm AEDT Japan flash manufacturing PMI street 52.7
12:45 pm AEDT China flash manufacturing PMI street 50.2
7:00 am GMT Germany producer prices street (1.0%)
8:00 am GMT France flash manufacturing PMI street 48.8
8:00 am GMT France flash service PMI street 48.5
8:30 am GMT Germany flash manufacturing PMI street 51.5
8:30 am GMT Germany flash service PMI street 54.5
9:00 am GMT Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI street 50.8
9:00 am GMT Eurozone flash service PMI street 52.4
9:00 am GMT Norway GDP street 0.5%
9:30 am GMT UK retail sales street 3.8%
9:30 am GMT US retail ex auto street 4.2%
8:30 am EDT US consumer prices street 1.6%
8:30 am EDT US CPI ex food and energy street 1.7%
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 284K
9:45 am EDT US flash manufacturing PMI street 56.3
10:00 am EDT US Philadelphia Fed street 18.5
10:00 am EDT US existing home sales street 5.15M
10:00 am EDT US leading index street 0.6%
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street (13 BCF)