World stock markets have been mixed overnight. US index futures are down slightly this morning, while across the pond, the FTSE and Dax
are down 0.2% while the CAC, IBEX and FTSEMIB are all up about 0.5%. Overnight Japanese economic figures were mixed while German retail sales disappointed badly.
USD performance has been mixed overnight. JPY remains broadly under pressure following more dovish talk out of the Bank of Japan on asset purchases. GBP, meanwhile has resumed its upswing on the back of stronger than expected UK house prices, further evidence the Chorus of Brexit Doom was dead wrong.
CAD is holding steady today ahead of Canadian GDP figures for June and for Q2. Although some may look to this for indications of whether the Bank of Canada may need to cut interest rates this year, because of the potential for distortion from the Fort Mc Murray wildfire, we could be in for a surprise that may be hard to read. Indications of whether or not we see a summer economic rebound may be more important to the Bank of Canada.
Agrium and Potash may be active again today on deal speculation after the fertilizer giants confirmed they are in merger discussions. Banks may also attract attention today with National Bank continuing a stellar earnings season for the group reporting EPS of $1.33 well above the $1.20 the street was expecting.
After a day of focusing on corporate News, Fed speculation may come back into the forefront today. Earlier this morning, Boston Fed President Rosengren, a voter this year, spoke in China indicating that with the US approaching unemployment and inflation targets the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. Chicago Fed President Evans, a voter next year, remained dovish. Today's ADP payrolls along with tomorrow's manufacturing PMI and Friday's nonfarm payrolls may help to determine whether the Fed raises rates in September, December or both.
Oil may also attract some attention later in the morning. WTI has been trading lower overnight after a 0.9 mmbbl increase in API inventories. Saudi Arabia indicated it is producing to meet demand and doesn't plan to max out capacity. That could be taken positively that they may be willing to cap production ad upcoming talks, or negatively that they still have more capacity to keep the supply market share war going if they want to.
National Bank of Canada $1.33 vs street $1.20
UK Nationwide house prices 5.6% vs street 4.8%
Germany retail sales (1.5%) vs street 0.3%
Germany unemployment change (7K) vs street (4K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.1% as expected
Norway GDP over quarter 0.0% vs street 0.1%
Greece retail sales (5.2%) vs previous (8.0%)
Eurozone unemployment rate 10.1% vs street 10.0%
Eurozone consumer prices 0.2% vs street 0.3%
Eurozone core CPI 0.8% vs street 0.9%
Japan industrial production (3.8%) vs street (3.0%)
Japan housing starts 8.9% vs street 7.3%
Japan construction orders (10.9%) vs previous (2.4%)
NZ ANZ business confidence 15.5 vs previous 16.0
NZ ANZ activity outlook 33.7 vs previous 31.4
China consumer sentiment 111.5 vs previous 114.0
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:00 am EDT FOMC Kashkari speaking
8:15 am EDT US ADP Payrolls street 179K
8:30 am EDT Canada June GDP street 1.0%
8:30 am EDT Canada Q2 GDP street (1.5%) vs previous 2.4%
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 54.0
10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street 2.2%
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.3 mmbbls
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.0 mmbbls)
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