Stocks soft, CAD steady with more potential market moving news on the way
Stock markets have been falling back again today on concerns about global growth following more interest rate cuts in Asia and tepid service PMI reports. The main events overnight were surprise easings in China and India. For China, the first cut or two were seen as encouraging that the PBOC was being proactive but the third and fourth cuts in rapid succession now have traders wondering how bad things are if the PBOC has had to hit the panic button. Similarly a surprise cut in India between RBI meetings has left traders wondering what’s up with that?
The US ADP payrolls report was pretty much flat over month and within the 200-250K sweet spot for markets so it has pretty much been seen as a non-event by traders with the Dow holding steady after the news. There are several announcements due from the US today that could spark trading action including US service PMI reports and the Fed’s Beige Book regional economic report. US crude oil inventories may influence trading in WTI, US and Canadian energy stocks and CAD.
It also may be a busy morning for the loonie. 30 minutes before the oil figures is the latest Bank of Canada report. Over the last week between Bank of Governor Poloz indicating the last rate cut was insurance and he could take a wait and see approach, the RBA doing just that and the recent strong Canadian GDP report expectations for this meeting have changed from another 0.25% cut to the Bank likely to hold steady. The statement may have a bigger impact depending on whether Governor Poloz leaves the door open to another cut soon or takes a more neutral stance.
There are no major corporate announcements this morning.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
China interest rate surprise 1.50% cut to the 7-day standing loan facility to 5.50%
India interest rate surprise 0.25% cut to the benchmark repo rate to 7.50%
US ADP payrolls street 220K vs previous 213K
Australia Q4 GDP 2.5% as expected vs previous 2.7%
Eurozone retail sales 1.1% vs street 0.1%
Service PMI reports:
Australia 51.6 vs previous 49.9
Japan 48.5 vs previous 51.3
China HSBC 52.0 vs previous 51.0
Spain 56.2 vs street 56.6
Italy 50.0 vs street 51.4
France 53.4 as expected
Germany 54.7 vs street 55.5
Eurozone 53.7 vs street 53.9
UK 56.7 vs street 57.5
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EST US Markit street 57.0
10:00 am EST US ISM street 56.5
10:00 am EST Canada interest rate 0.75% no change expected
10:30 am EST US crude oil inventory street 3.9 mmbbls vs previous 8.7 mmbbls
2:00 pm EST US Beige book