he two day rally in European and North American stocks on hopes of a Greek debt deal came to an abrupt end Wednesday when the creditor group shot down Greece’s Monday proposal and came back with one of their own. Considering that there had already been questions of whether the last Greek proposal would survive a trip through parliament anyway, a deal that could work for all parties still appears a long way off.
Latest reports suggest today’s meetings have just broken off with no deal but more talks planned for tomorrow. EUR didn’t rally on deal speculation so it didn’t fall back to Earth like stocks did. Overall, currency traders spent the day taking a wait and see approach.
With the potential for a big move in either direction depending on a deal or no deal decision, it appears some traders are reluctant to commit too much in order to avoid getting caught on the wrong side.
With the tailwind from Greek deal speculation fading, US traders also revisited the hawkish comments from Fed Governor Powell about two potential rate hikes this year that they had ignored on Tuesday. An upward revision of Q1 GDP to (0.2%) and better than expected consumer spending also helped to rekindle speculation that the Fed could start raising interest rates soon. USD traded higher though much of the day, knocking gold back again.
Crude oil once again failed to capitalize on a big drawdown in US inventories, suggesting that its recovery rally may be exhausted for now as the supply war continues.
There aren’t any major economic announcements expected from Asia Pacific countries but indices
could still be active. In addition to a potential Greece related overhang, the Nikkei has been showing signs of tiring, the S&P/ASX has been on the rebound and Chinese indices have been sending mixed signals on direction.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US Q1 GDP update (0.2%) as expected vs previous (0.7%)
US Q1 personal consumption update 2.1% vs street 1.9%
US Q1 core PCE inflation update 0.8% as expected
US crude oil inventories (4.9 mmbbls) vs street (2.0 mmbbls)
Germany IFO bus climate 107.4 vs street 108.1
Germany IFO current assessment 113.1 vs street 114.1
Germany IFO expectations 102.0 vs street 102.4
France GDP 0.8% vs street 0.6%
Norway unemployment 4.2% as expected
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am BST Sweden producer prices previous 2.4%
11:00 am BST UK CBI sales street 35 vs previous 51
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 273K
8:30 am EDT US personal income street 0.5%
8:30 am EDT US personal spending street 0.7%
8:30 am EDT US core PCE inflation street 1.2%
9:45 am EDT US flash services PMI street 56.5
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 79 BCF
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