Stocks are bouncing back from yesterday’s declines, particularly in Europe where the Dax
has posted a 1.0% gain on the day so far. US indices appear to be heading for a positive open after an afternoon rebound yesterday reduced losses.
There hasn’t been much in the way of news to drive a big rebound today. China data, UK employment and US retail sales all came in a bit soft, but nothing to panic about either, while US earnings reports were mixed. This suggests we are in a period of indecision with bulls and bears trying to figure out where to focus; on an improving US economy or on growing political and economic risks in other parts of the world.
This battle can best be seen in the gold market today where the yellow metal was pounded back down toward $1,300 overnight but has rebounded back above $1,310 today. These types of intraday swings and reversals can create opportunities for traders.
The biggest action of the day has been in the UK where GBP has taken a big hit following the Bank of England’s latest inflation report. Although better GDP and economic slack forecasts add to the case for an early rate increase, a big cut to the wage growth outlook takes the pressure off the central bank to do so. Governor Carney indicated the MPC continues to monitor wage growth and has no preset course on rate increases. The street appears to have taken all of this to mean a UK rate hike looks unlikely through the rest of 2014 at least, and of course once we get into 2015 political factors could play more of a role with an election coming.
While GBP has fallen to the bottom of the currency pile, AUD and NOK have rallied to the top of the charts boosted by better than expected data out of Australia and Norway respectively. CAD is holding steady against USD along with continental currencies which are stabilizing after yesterday’s declines.
Macy’s $0.80 vs street $0.86, cut FY same store sales guidance to 1.5-2.0% from 2.5-3.0%
Deere $2.33 vs street $2.20, cut sales guidance to (6.0%) from (4.0%)
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US retail sales 0.0% vs street 0.4%
US retail ex auto 0.1% vs street 0.4%
UK jobless claims (33K) vs street (30K)
UK unemployment rate 6.4% as expected
UK 3M jobs change 167K vs street 270K and previous 254K
UK inflation report raised GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.4%
Inflation outlook unchanged at 1.8%
Spare capacity cut to 1.0% from 1.0-1.5%
Cut wage growth to 1.25% from 2.5%
Forecasts based on a first rate hike in February 2015
China retail sales 12.2% vs street 12.5%
China industrial production 9.0% vs street 9.2%
China fixed assets 17.0% vs street 17.4%
China new CNY loans 385B vs street 780B
China M2 money supply 13.5% VS street 14.4%
Germany consumer prices 0.8% as expected
France consumer prices 0.5% as expected
Spain consumer prices (0.3%) as expected
Norway retail sales 1.2% vs street 0.4%
Greece GDP (0.2%) vs street (0.5%) vs previous (0.9%)
Eurozone industrial production 0.0% vs street 0.2%
Japan GDP (1.7%) vs street (1.8%)
Japan GDP deflator (inflation) 2.0% vs street 1.6%
Australia consumer confidence 98.5 vs previous 94.9
Economic reports due later today include:
10:30 am BST US crude oil inventories street (2.0 mmbbls)