Stocks pick up where they left off, forex and commodities mixed
01:00, 24 november 2014
· Av CMC Markets
Building on Friday’s gains, major stock markets around the world (except Japan which was closed for a holiday) are off to a positive start to the week as traders continue to respond favourably to last week’s surprise Chinese interest rate cut and hope that stimulus talk out of the ECB may finally lead to action.
Germany survey data this morning was better than expected, which also has helped to keep the party going. This month’s ZEW and IFO surveys combined show that German investors and businesses are getting more confident, but the proof will be in the pudding. There are a number of hard numbers for Germany due over this week including GDP and employment which may give a better idea of where things are heading.
Trading in other asset classes, however, suggests that stock gains may partly be due to wishful thinking on the part of stock traders. European currencies are the top performers today with NOK and SEK leading the charge. The rest of the resource currencies, however, are at the bottom of the heap with AUD the worst performer. JPY and gold are also dropping back today while crude oil is down slightly.
NOK doing way better than CAD suggests today’s trading is not commodity driven, rather it appears to be more of a case of positive attitudes toward Europe and caution everywhere else. In particular, while stock traders have cheered recent stimulus moves in China and Japan, one has to wonder how bad their economies are to force the hands of the central banks and what that really means for resource demand.
Over the next two days, focus may turn to North America with a flood of US data due before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in unofficially in Wednesday afternoon.
There is no major corporate news this morning.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Germany IFO bus climate 104.7 vs street 103.0
Germany IFO current assessment 110.0 vs street 108.0
Germany IFO expectations 99.7 vs street 98.5
Singapore consumer prices 1.7% vs street 1.8%
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EDT US Flash service PMI street 57.3