Asia Pacific and European stock markets finished off a very weak Q3 with a trading bounce, which left us with some questions. In particular, was this a trading bounce driven by the closing out of profitable short positions for quarter end (which there may be a lot of considering how much major indices and commodities fell in the quarter), or is it a sign of something more. The Nikkei (bear trap reversal), Dax
(double bottom) and Hang Seng (triple bottom) have all been showing signs that this year’s seasonal selloff may be ending. Copper also has been on the rebound with China fears subsiding. Today’s trading may indicate if bulls are really gaining traction or not.
US markets also gained on the day but at a more moderate pace than their European counterparts with the Dow rising about 1%, about half of the 2.2% gain the Dax posted. Crude oil, meanwhile, started out strong but then underperformed copper after US inventories posted a surprise increase and implied demand fell.
There were a number of reasons for their relative underperformance. First, US indices started their selloff later than overseas indices and because of this could bottom out later. Second, US indices have yet to retest their August lows, the S&P has done so on closing prices but not intraday lows. Third, US data was mixed with a slightly positive ADP payrolls report offset by weak Chicago PMI, while weak Milwaukee ISM confirmed a soft upper Midwest economy.
Traders appear to have recognized that none of these reports were enough to knock the FOMC off its course toward raising interest rates, and that it would likely take something really bad to force further delay. October looks increasingly likely for liftoff with the potential for political disruption and a possible government shutdown in December. USD has continued to advance, particularly against gold and continental currencies. Even among the resource group NOK and SEK lagged behind the strengthening AUD and NZD.
CAD is coming off a particularly strong day, gaining support from a better than expected Canada July GDP report. The economy grew for a second straight month to confirm a prior string of five straight losses has been broken. It also shows that the economy continues to rebalance with the positive impact of the lower loonie starting to emerge and offset some of the negative impact of the oil price crash. October already looks off for another Canada rate cut due to the federal election, but continued good news like this would make December unlikely as well.
Today markets around the world may be most influenced by manufacturing PMI reports. China is in the spotlight first and could impact a number of markets with traders trying to figure out if stock market weakness has spilled over into the broader economy. Traders may also consider the split between the manufacturing and service sides of the economy.
Other PMI reports that may attract attention include Japan (can it hold 50?) India (how bad are things that the RBI cut 0.50% this week instead of 0.25%), Canada (can it regain 50?), Greece (has it started to bounce back from summer political disruptions?) and the US (is Chicago isolated or is weakness national, what could that mean for the Fed?)
Comments from FOMC member Lael Brainard this evening may also attract some attention. Although she is speaking at a Community Banking conference, it is her first public appearance since the last FOMC meeting unlike other members speaking today and tomorrow who have already been out and about.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US ADP Payrolls 200K vs street 190K
US ADP Payrolls prev month 186K revised down from 190K
US Chicago PMI 48.7 vs street 53.0
US ISM Milwaukee 39.4 vs street 48.5
US DOE crude oil inventories 3.9 mmbbls vs street (0.35 mmbbls)
US DOE gasoline inventories 3.2 mmbbls vs street (0.5 mmbbls)
US DOE implied oil demand 16,085 mmbbls vs previous 16,587 mmbbls
Canada July GDP 0.3% over month vs street 0.2%
0.8% over year vs street 0.7%
UK Q2 GDP update 2.4% vs street 2.6% and previous 2.9%
Germany retail sales 2.5% vs street 3.3%
Germany unemployment chnge 2K vs street (5K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.4% as expected
Italy unemployment rate 11.9% vs street 12.0%
Eurozone unemployment rate 11.0% vs street 10.9%
Eurozone consumer prices (0.1%) vs street 0.0%
Greece retail sales (7.3%) vs street (5.7%)
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:15 pm EDT FOMC Brainard speaking
9:00 am AEST NZ QV house prices previous 11.3%
9:50 am AEST Japan Tankan large mfg street 13 vs previous 15
4:30 pm AEST Australia commodity index previous (20.9%)
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 271K
10:00 am EDT US construction spending street 0.5%
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 101 BCF
1:00 pm EDT FOMC Lockhart speaking
2:30 pm EDT FOMC Williams speaking
Manufacturing PMI reports:
9:30 am AEST Australia previous 51.7
11:00 am AEST China official mfg street 49.7
11:00 am AEST China official non-mfg previous 53.4
11:35 am AEST Japan previous 50.9
11:45 am AEST China Caixin mfg street 47.0
11:45 am AEST China Caixin service previous 51.5
3:00 pm AEST India previous 52.3
11:00 pm AEST Singapore street 49.4
11:00 pm AEST Singapore electronics sector street 48.8
7:30 am BST Sweden street 54.0
8:00 am BST Poland street 52.3
8:00 am BST Norway street 44.0
8:15 am BST Spain street 52.9
8:45 am BST Italy street 53.4
8:50 am BST France street 50.4
8:55 am BST Germany street 52.5
9:00 am BST Greece previous 39.1
9:00 am BST Eurozone street 52.0
9:30 am BST UK street 51.3
9:30 am EDT Canada previous 49.4
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 53.0
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 50.6 vs previous 51.1