Stocks started the week off strong with renewed interest driven by a more dovish leaning Fed and Brexit polls swinging back toward even or giving Remain a small lead. This relief rally appears to have run out of gas with markets stalling short of key levels such as 18000 for the Dow and 10000 for the Dax
The way that stocks took off with oil rebounding as well indicated that the fear which gripped the markets early last week was fading. This action, however, should have been confirmed by big outflows from the defensive havens which gained last week including gold and JPY. Instead, the Yen made headway against USD and EUR rejecting the risk on notion while gold clawed back early losses.
This action indicates that there is more going on and many traders remain concerned about the potential for volatility. Uncertainly still lingers around the Brexit vote where polls suggest a very close race. There is also a question about what Bullard's sudden dovish about face means for the health of the US economy as weaker forecast US GDP growth could drag on corporate earnings.
The shift in fed speculation toward fewer rate hikes continues to drag USD lower, igniting rallies in AUD and NZD. The resource dollars could be active today around RBA minutes as well. News flow is otherwise light so we may trading continue to be driven by speculation surrounding Wednesdays Yellen testimony and Thursdays Brexit vote.
There have been no major corporate announcements after the US close so far today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Weekend Brexit polls include:
Survation 45% Remain, 42% Leave
YouGov 44% Remain, 43% Leave
UK Rightmove house prices 5.5% vs previous 7.8%
Germany producer prices (2.7%) vs street (2.9%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
11:30 am AEST Australia RBA meeting minutes
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