Balancing the tone between support of economies, signalling adults are in charge and avoiding signs of panic that could undermine confidence has been the key theme of overnight news, particularly in the UK and Japan.
More talk about potential helicopter money stimulus in Japan through the issue of perpetual debt sending JPY lower and USDJPY up through 105 while helping the Nikkei and Hang Seng to 1% gains. European and US markets traded higher as well on UK stimulus expectations but have backed off after the Bank of England decided not to pull the trigger on a rate cut just yet. Currently the FTSE is down marginally on the day in response to a GBP rally while the Dax
is up 0.6%.
US index futures are up 0.6% with the Dow and S&P trading at new all-time highs. Stocks have been boosted by renewed interest in the banking sector after JPMorgan posted very strong earnings reporting EPS of $1.55 way above the $1.42 street estimate.
The Bank of England and the UK’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond have been walking a tightrope overnight trying to indicate plans to support the UK economy as needed through the Brexit process but at the same time trying to avoid hitting the Panic button. Chancellor Hammond for example indicated on taking over that he has no plans to bring in an emergency budget, that he would update plans at the usual Autumn statement and hinting that he is likely to back off on austerity (going in the opposite direction of his predecessor George Osborne).
To the surprise of many, but not myself or my fellow analysts at CMC Markets around the world, the Bank of England did not cut interest rates today, holding the line in an 8-1 vote with only one dovish dissenter (some other people predicting a hold suggested potential for more dovish dissenters). The Bank did indicate that it is seriously looking at a stimulus move for its August meeting. The three week delay on stimulus give the Bank more time to assess the fallout from the Brexit vote on the economy plus the impact of the plunge in the pound, already a big stimulus boost for the UK economy. It went unsaid but holding off also gives them a chance to meet with the new finance ministry to sort out a co-ordinated response. Because the street had been more dovish, cable has jumped on the news as traders scramble to get back on side.
The crude oil price is bouncing back today with WTI gaining 2.0% which has helped to support CAD keeping USDCAD
below $1.3000. The loonie had rallied following yesterday’s Bank of Canada statement until falling oil prices capped the rally. New house price data could attract some attention after yesterday’s Teranet report showing a 10% spike in home prices.
Commodity markets particularly metals may also be active today as traders await China GDP, retail sales and industrial production reports tonight.
JPMorgan Chase $1.55 vs street $1 42
UK Bank of England interest rate surprise hold at 0.50% a 0.25% cut to 0.25% expected
UK Bank of England vote 8-1 dissenter dovish
US Bank of England QE £375B no change expected
Australia employment change 8K vs street 10K vs previous 18K
Australia full-time jobs 38K vs previous 0K
Australia part-time jobs (30K) vs previous 18K
Australia unemployment rate 5.8% as expected
NZ BusinessNZ manuf PMI 57.7 vs previous 57.1
NZ ANZ consumer confidence 118.2 vs previous 118.9
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 265K
8:30 am EDT US producer prices street 0.0%
8:30 am EDT US core PPI street 1.0%
8:30 am EDT Canada new house prices street 2.2%
11:15 am EDT FOMC Lockhart speaking