US and European indices
have shrugged off Friday’s weakness and are advancing again. The UK is closed for a holiday today but major continental indices are up 1% or more on the day. European traders appear to be taking political changes underway in France (government dissolved new cabinet formation underway) and Friday’s comments from ECB President Draghi calling for politicians to do more on their side (reforms and integration) to suggests that some in Europe are taking the slow economy seriously and more action to kick the continent out of stagnation could be on the way.
US traders, meanwhile have taken Fed Chair Yellen’s balance Friday speech as a sign that the economy keeps humming along sending the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 to new all-time highs. Don’t forget, taking away emergency monetary stimulus is a sign of strength not weakness. While the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings remains positive, there remains the risk of a liquidity correction at some point, but so far the bulls have kept the bears at bay from staging their historically common summer correction.
USD continues to rally on anticipation that will continue to take away stimulus going forward, sending many currencies relatively lower with EUR, NOK and NZD among the worst performers to start the week. CAD is off moderately while JPY and GBP are holding steady. Gold is down slightly on the day but appears to be stabilizing near $1.275. The Q2 GDP update due later in the week could attract some attention.
Overnight reports suggest that Tim Hortons is in talks to be acquired by Burger King. The most interesting part though is that the new company would be headquartered in Canada to take advantage of lower Canadian tax rates (yes really! I had to read that twice too! ) The two brands would apparently still operate as separate entities. Considering that Tims used to be owned by Wendy’s it’s possible that other suitors could emerge so we could see considerable market speculation emerge with Tims apparently in play.
If a tax inversion deal does come about involving Tims, this could potentially spark interest in other Canadian companies from US counterparts looking for a better tax rate north of the border.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Germany IFO business climate 106.3 vs street 107.0
Germany IFO current assessment 111.1 vs street 112.0
Germany IFO expectations 101.7 vs street 102.1
Singapore consumer prices 1.2% vs street 1.8%
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EDT US flash service PMI street 58.0 vs previous 60.8
10:00 am EDT US new home sales street 430K