Stock markets have been on hold overnight trading flat to slightly lower. Flash manufacturing PMI numbers for Japan, Germany and France came in soft, along with retail sales for the UK and Canada, dampening enthusiasm and making traders reluctant to take indices
There also has been lots of talk but no action surrounding Greece and the EU again. Lots of contradictory reports have been flying around with rumours the ECB is preparing for a Grexit offset by talk politicians in Greece and Germany still want to make a deal to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Although it’s still hard to tell what’s real, what’s imagined and what’s posturing, market action suggests traders still expect a deal to get done as Greek 10-year treasuries remain well below 10%, EUR is soft but within recent ranges and gold is holding steady.
DKK has come under pressure after Denmark’s government indicated it could bring in capital controls to defend its EURDKK peg. The peg has been under strain since the Swiss removed their own peg last month and the ECB introduced its new QE program which has already forced the Danes into negative interest rates.
The loonie has been under pressure today after Canadian retail sales fell off sharply in December, a sign that the negative impact of job losses in the oil patch may be hitting faster than the benefits from lower energy prices and a lower CAD. USDCAD has rocketed back above $1.2500 this morning even though crude oil is on the rebound.
Later this morning US flash manufacturing PMI may indicate which way the world’s largest economy has been heading in February so far. Crude oil may also be active through the day with this week’s drill rig count due early afternoon.
Newmont Mining $0.17 vs street $0.10
Deere $1.12 vs street $0.83, but company forecast sales are expected to fall 17% in 2015.
Nordstrom $1.32 vs street $1.35
Enbridge $0.49 vs street $0.52
First Quantum $0.13 vs street $0.17
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
UK retail sales 5.4% vs street 5.9%
UK retail ex auto 4.8% vs street 5.9%
Canada retail sales (2.0%) vs street (0.4%)
Canada retail ex auto (2.3%) vs street (0.8%)
Canada retail ex auto and gas (1.3%)
Japan flash manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs street 52.5
France flash manufacturing PMI 47.7 vs street 49.6
France flash service PMI 53.4 vs street 49.9
Germany flash manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs street 51.5
Germany flash service PMI 55.5 vs street 54.4
Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI 51.1 vs street 51.5
Eurozone flash service PMI 53.9 vs street 53.0
Germany producer prices (2.2%) vs street (2.0%)
Sweden consumer confidence 97.4 vs street 99.5
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EST US flash manufacturing PMI street 53.6
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 1,358