Stock market action over the last week has been like a tennis match with bulls and bears trading control back and forth each day. After a down day to start the week, today indices
find themselves on the plus side for the most part.
Continued protests in Hong Kong heading into tomorrow’s National Day holiday had traders fleeing the Hang Seng again while the Nikkei gave back some of its recent gains after better than expected unemployment and retail sales eased the pressure off the Bank of Japan do bring in even more stimulus.
European indices are trading higher today led by the MIB and CAC. Spain’s IBEX is up nearly 1% with the federal government challenging the legality of the upcoming Catalonia referendum on independence. Continental indices also may be getting a boost from speculation that poor German unemployment and low Eurozone inflation may keep the ECB’s feet to the fire and add to the pressure for it to get more aggressive with the asset purchase (QE) program it is expected to launch at Thursday’s meeting.
US indices are trading higher in what looks to be a trading bounce. USD is continuing its relentless advance against most currencies. While EUR is taking the biggest hit on speculation of ECB stimulus, gold is also down sharply on the day, testing $1,200 and dragging CHF down for the ride. NZD is holding up better today, stabilizing after Monday’s big takedown, while AUD, SEK and NOK are down only moderately as well.
CAD is running in the middle of the pack with JPY and GBP. The loonie is underperforming its resource currency peers but doing better than the continental currencies. Canadian GDP came in short of expectations which sent CAD into a tailspin.
We could see more activity in US sensitive markets as Chicago PMI sets the stage for a big flurry of news through to the end of the week which includes manufacturing PMI and ADP payrolls tomorrow, the ECB meeting on Thursday, plus nonfarm payrolls and service PMI on Friday.
Ebay has decided to split itself into two companies with plans to spin off PayPal into a separate public company from its online marketplace.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Canada July GDP 2.5% vs street 2.8%
Canada industrial prices 0.2% vs street (0.2%)
Canada raw material prices (2.2%) vs street (1.5%)
Germany retail sales 2.5% vs street 0.3%
Germany unemployment change 12K vs street (2k)
Germany unemployment rate 6.7% as expected
Norway retail sales 0.6% vs street 0.8%
Italy unemployment rate 12.3% vs street 12.6%
UK GDP update 3.2% as expected
UK Nationwide house prices 9.4% vs street 10.4%
Eurozone unemployment rate 11.5% as expected
Eurozone core consumer prices 0.7% vs street 0.9%
Japan unemployment rate 3.5% vs street 3.8%
Japan retail sales 1.9% vs street 0.5%
Japan industrial production (2.9%) vs street (1.1%)
Japan labour earnings 1.4% vs street 0.9% and previous 2.4%
Japan housing starts (12.5%)street (14.2%)
Japan construction orders 8.6% vs previous 24.4%
China manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs street 50.5
NZ Building permits 0.0% as expected
NZ ANZ activity 37.0 vs previous 36.6
NZ ANZ bus confidence 13.4 vs previous 24.4
India RBI interest rate 8.00% no change as expected
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 62.0
10:00 am EDT US consumer confidence street 92.5
10:45 am EDT US Fed Powell speaking