t was a sloppy, relatively directionless day for trading in the US today where indices
finished down moderately. Stocks were unable to hold the upward momentum from Friday after running into some headwinds. A series of second tier announcements came in soft but more importantly, Boston Fed President Rosengren, part of dovish faction at the Fed confirmed that the cautious group at the Fed is still looking for at least two rate hikes this year. He called markets expecting 0 or 1 hike surprising and suggested traders were being too pessimistic and that if good data keeps coming in the Fed could move faster than the market thinks. (I’m still thinking June rather than April).
Asia Pacific trading today, however, is more likely to be dominated by local rather than global news anyway today. Australia may attract particular focus with the RBA meeting plus trade and service PMI figures and a commodity price report for New Zealand could keep markets hopping. The RBA isn’t expected to make any changes to the cash rate but considering the big advances made by the dollar in recent weeks, don’t be surprised if the central bank tries to talk the Dollar back down again.
India may also be active today around the RBI meeting where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. The Nifty Fifty has been rising lately on anticipation of a dovish move.
China returns to trading today following a holiday. Japanese stocks could be influenced by service PMI results and action in JPY which has been rallying to start the week. Singapore markets may also be active today with PMI reports out overnight which improved over last month and beat the street. Service PMI reports and North American trade figures could influence trading into tomorrow.
Tesla Motors delivered 14.8K vehicles in Q1, below guidance of 16K hampered by parts shortages but it still expects to reach its 2016 delivery target of 80K-90K vehicles. Q1 Model S orders running 45% above last year.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Singapore PMI 49.4 vs street 48.9
Singapore electronics sector 49.0 vs previous 48.2
US ISM New York 50.4 vs street 54.1
US Fed labour market conditions (2.1) vs street 1.5
US factory orders (1.7%)as expected previous revised down to 1.2% from 1.6%
US factory orders ex transport (0.8%) vs street (0.5%)
US durable goods orders final (3.0%) vs street (2.8%)
Canada Bloomberg Nanos conf 54.7 vs previous 54.5
UK construction PMI 54.2 vs street 54.1
Eurozone producer prices (4.2%) vs street (4.0%)
Eurozone unemployment rate 10.3% as expected
Spain unemployment change (58K) vs street (50K)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
7:00 pm EDT FOMC Kashkari speaking
1:00 am EDT FOMC Evans speaking overseas
10:00 am AEDT Japan cash earnings street 0.2% vs previous 0.4%
11:00 am AEDT NZ ANZ commodity prices previous 0.4%
11:30 am AEDT Australia trade balance street ($2.5B)
2:30 pm AEDT Australia RBS decision 2.00% no change expected
3:30 pm AEDT India RBI repurchase rate 0.25% cut to 6.50% expected
7:00 am BST Germany factory orders street 2.2%
8:30 am BST Sweden industrial production street 4.0%
10:00 am BST Eurozone retail sales street 1.9%
8:30 am EDT US trade balance street ($46.2B)
8:30 am EDT Canada trade balance street ($0.9B)
Service PMI reports:
9:30 am AEDT Australia previous 51.8
12:00 pm AEDT Japan Nikkei previous 51.2
1:00 pm AEDT Singapore Nikkei previous 51.6
7:30 am BST Sweden street 56.7
8:15 am BST Spain street 54.5
8:45 am BST Italy street 53.9
8:50 am BST France street 51.2
8:55 am BST Germany street 55.5
9:30 am BST UK street 53.5
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 51.2
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 54.2
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