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Market update

Quiet start expected, German PPI expected to fall again in May

With US markets closed, markets in Europe underwent a weak and subdued session at the start of the new week, with yesterday’s declines predominantly on the back of the late Friday sell-off in the US, which saw markets there close off their highs of the week.

The lack of any further details on a China stimulus plan along with additional upward pressure on rates over uncertainty about further rate rises and a slowing global economy saw European investors engage with some modest profit taking.

Asia markets were mixed this morning, even as the People’s Bank of China cut its 1 and 5 year lending rates by a modest 10 bps.

The UK gilt market was the main source of movement in the bond market, with 2-year yields pushing up to their highest level in 15 years, while 5- and 10-year yields came close to the highs we saw at the end of September last year, after the Kwarteng budget.

There is growing anxiety about the effect the recent rise in UK gilt yields is already having on the mortgage market, a concern that was played out in the form of weakness in house building and real estate shares yesterday, as 2-year mortgage deals pushed above 6%.

It is also feeding into a wider concern that economic activity in the second half of the year will be constrained by increased mortgage costs, which in turn will push up rents as well as shrinking disposable income.

All eyes will be on tomorrow’s inflation numbers with Bank of England policymakers praying that we start to see rapid slowdowns in how fast prices are rising before the end of the summer.

While prices have been slowing here in the UK they have been slowing more rapidly in the US as well as in Europe, although in Europe they also fell from much higher levels.

Today we get the latest Germany PPI numbers for May which have been slowing sharply from peaks of 45.8% back in August, and had come down to 17.6% by January this year. In today’s numbers for May it is expected to see annualised price growth slow further to 1.7%, while seeing a -0.7% decline month on month.

Another monthly decline in today’s numbers would be the 7th monthly decline in the last 8 months, in a sign that disinflation is working its way through the system, and could also manifest itself in this week’s UK PPI numbers as well.

The puzzle is why it is taking so long to bleed into the headline CPI and core CPI numbers, though it could start to by the beginning of Q3. The Bank of England will certainly be praying it does.

As we look towards today’s European open we aren't expected to see much change from yesterday's close.  

EUR/USD – have slipped back from the 1.0970 area having broken above the 50-day SMA at 1.0880 which now acts as support. We still remain on course for a move towards the April highs at the 1.1095 area.

GBP/USD – slipped back from 1.2845/50 area with support now at 1.2750 which was the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4250/1.0344 down move. If we slip below 1.2750, we could see further weakness towards 1.2680. Still on course for a move towards the 1.3000 area. 

EUR/GBP – remains under pressure and on course for further losses toward the 0.8470/80 area. Currently have resistance at 0.8580 area and behind that at 0.8620.

USD/JPY – still on course for a move towards the next resistance at 142.50 which is 61.8% retracement of the 151.95/127.20 down move. Above 142.50 targets the 145.00 area. Support now comes in at 140.20/30.

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