Stock markets around the world have been responding to manufacturing PMI reports. Asia Pacific markets were mixed with Japan correcting Monday’s rally, Australia falling off of a softish report and China gaining it its reports essentially met expectations and suggested its economy may be stabilizing. The PBOC removed another CNY 72 Billion in emergency liquidity, a sign of confidence.
European data this morning has been better than expected with most major PMI reports beating the street, particularly Sweden with the UK and Greece disappointing. This news plus a small positive surprise in German employment has given a boost to both European indices
but also continental currencies with NOK and SEK leading the charge. EUR has been outperforming GBP to start the month.
AUD is underperforming in today’s currency trading after last night’s RBA decision. Governor Stevens indicated in the statement that although the decline in AUD over the last year is helping to support the economy, the recent rally is reducing the currency boost and that AUD remains high by historical standards. Although today’s attempt to talk down the dollar wasn’t as aggressive as in recent months, it appears the street got the hint.
Emerging market numbers were soft with manufacturing PMI’s for India, Russia South Africa and Turkey all slowing moderately from last month. India held its interest rate steady at 7% as it continues to fight inflation with the goal of 8% CPI by January 2015 and 6% CPI by January 2016.
Gold, crude oil and wheat all continue to tumble with fears that political tensions in Ukraine could disrupt commodity supply fading, causing political risk premiums to dissipate. Platinum is soaring for a second straight day as strong auto sales boost industrial demand for the metal.
US indices have picked up on European momentum and appear set to open higher today as they continue to advance within established ranges, we could see significant activity later this morning in North America when US and Canadian manufacturing PMI reports are released.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Australia interest rate 2.50% no change as expected
India reverse repo rate 7.00% no change as expected
Germany unemployment change (12K) vs street (10K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.7% vs street 6.8%
Italy unemployment rate 13.0% street 12.9%
Eurozone unemployment rate 11.9% vs street 12.0%
Canada industrial prices 1.0% vs street 0.8%
Canada raw material prices 5.7% vs street 3.0%
Japan Tankan large mfg index 17 vs street 19 vs previous 16
Japan Tankan large mfg outlook 8 vs street 13 vs previous 14
South Korea consumer prices 1.3% vs street 1.4% vs previous 1.0%
Manufacturing PMI reports include:
Australia 47.9 vs previous 48.6
South Korea 50.4 vs previous 49.8
China official 50.3 vs street 50.1
China HSBC 48.0 vs street 48.1
India 51.3 vs previous 52.5
Spain 52.8 vs street 52.3
Italy 52.4 vs street 52.0
France 52.1 vs street 51.9
Germany 53.7 vs street 53.8
Sweden 56.5 vs street 54.1
Norway 51.9 vs street 51.7
Greece 49.7 vs previous 51.3
Eurozone 53.0 as expected
UK 55.3 vs street 56.7
South Africa 50.3 vs street 51.2
Turkey 51.7 vs previous 53.4
Russia 48.3 vs previous 48.5
Monthly auto sales
Chrysler 13% vs street 10%
Economic reports due later today include:
Manufacturing PMI reports:
9:00 am EDT Brazil previous 50.4
9:30 am EDT Canada previous 52.9
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 56.0
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 54.0 vs previous 53.2
10:30 am EDT Mexico
10:00 am EDT US construction spending street 0.1%
Through the day US sales reports from automakers