Last week was a positive week and in some cases a record week for most of the major markets. While the Nikkei 225 hit 15 year highs, Chinese markets also soared, and US markets also made new records. European markets were more subdued though they stabilised somewhat after the sharp falls the week before. European markets did rebound last week but did find themselves struggling for gains, closing well off their highest levels, as uncertainty over events in Greece and some disappointing economic data tempered enthusiasm, while a weaker US dollar helped US markets push back up towards their previous peaks, as well as making new ones. The Nasdaq Composite was the main driver in the US finally overcoming its previous all-time peaks reached 15 years ago at the end of the dot com boom. The weakness of the US dollar was helped by a raft of more disappointing economic data last week, culminating in yet another negative core durable goods number, the sixth in succession and the worst sequence since the end of 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. The continued softness of US data is likely to increase the interest in this week’s FOMC meeting, with the focus likely to be on whether Fed officials believe the current soft patch is transitory, particularly if this week’s Q1 GDP number comes in below 1%. What does appear to be certain is that the prospect of a US rate rise has been put back as a result of recent US data weakness, despite some FOMC members attempts to keep the June rate meeting in play for a possible policy change. As was widely expected in the days leading up to it there was no agreement on Friday between Greece and EU creditors in Riga as yet another deadline came and went, with no sign of an agreement even imminent, which in itself is a concern, given that there appears to be no Plan B, in the increasingly likely event of a Greece default, in the coming weeks. If anything the parties were further apart than ever with Greek finance minister Varoufakis, getting both barrels so to speak from his European contemporaries on Friday, due to frustration at the lack of detail with respect to further details on the Greek government’s reform plans. While it had been widely anticipated that the Greek government would have run out of money by now it continues to stagger on, finding money from a variety of sources including local government cash reserves. The focus now inevitably shifts to the next payment dates as the Greek government looks to pay its monthly pension and salary commitments before Friday’s scheduled payment to the IMF of about €200m. EURUSD – the rebound from the recent lows at 1.0520 continues to make progress with resistance, currently at 1.0900. The big resistance levels sits at the 1.1050 level. Only a break below trend line support at 1.0680 from the recent low at 1.0520 suggests a move back lower. GBPUSD – the pound continues to gain traction pushing on to the 1.5200 level and 100 day MA. A break through here has the potential to target the 1.5500 level. Pullbacks are likely to find support at the 50 day MA and the 1.5000 level as the bullish weekly reversal candle of 2 weeks ago continues to play out. EURGBP – last week’s rebound from 0.7117 suggests we may have seen a short term base. To mitigate the downside pressure we would need to see move back through the 0.7235 area. USDJPY – despite a quick peak above 120.00 last week we’ve slid back again. We need to retake the 120 level to retarget the 120.70 area and the highs at 122.00. While below 120.00 the bias remains for a return towards the March lows at 118.30. A move below 118.30 retargets the 116.50 level. CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
Positive open expected as markets look to this weeks Fed meeting
02:00, 27 april 2015